NFL 12/6

Tampa Bay +10 @ Detroit:

Detroit’s coming off an emotional win on Thanksgiving.  They’ll definitely have the momentum playing at home, but we think Detroit’s got some chinks in the armor, and they know it from their loss to the Patriots.  The Bucs have been able to play with almost anyone.  If they can limit turnovers, this is a lock.  There’s value in the Bucs getting 10.

Teaser 1 of the Day: Baltimore +10/Saints -3:

Carolina is absolutely awful.  They have no run game whatsoever.  New Orleans finally got their big signature road win at Pittsburgh.  Coming back home to their dome knowing Atlanta will probably forgo their lead at Green Bay, is huge.  Baltimore has a chance to beat Miami this week.  Both teams are extremely evenly matched and in the middle of a tough playoff hunt.  Expect a barn-burner.  Getting 10 is a gift.

Indy vs. Cleveland Over 50/Indy -3:
Cleveland has an improved defense, but they haven’t faced anything like the Colts in their dome.  Indy will give up yards on the ground and through the air, in bunches.  Too much Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton here, but we don’t see how Cleveland doesn’t put up at least three touchdowns.  This is especially true now that Josh Gordon is back and healthy.  Indy wins 37 – 20.

St. Louis -3 @ Washington:

On what’s planet should Washington’s defense be favored to hang within 3 points of anyone?  The Skins are starting to play better, but they still give up big plays in bunches.  No other team is playing as efficiently as the Rams are either.  Rams win closer than expected 24 – 20.

Oakland +9.5 vs. San Francisco:

Over 72% of the betting public is riding the 9ers now.  Being so, it’s perfect timing to jump back on the Raiders.  San Fran has been horrible on the road this season.  The San Francisco offense has been sputtering and worst of all Colin Kaepernick is turning the ball over.  San Fran’s run gets limited in this one and it ends up closer than expected.  49ers win 22 – 17.

Seattle +0 @ Philly:

Seattle has the lockdown defense and the one thing we know is Philly is soft up front defensively.  Expect heavy dosages of Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  When Philly has faced defenses like this they haven’t been able to assert their pace.  Physical secondary coverage slows down speed burners.  The Seahawks lock down Philly and cruise to a 28 – 13 victory.

Teaser 2 of the Day:  Seattle +7/Denver -3:

See above on Seattle.  Buffalo’s defense is great.  They’ve kept them competitive with any team in the league.  A couple things stand out though.  This bad boy is in Mile High.  Traveling from Buffalo to Mile High is no easy task.  It’s still Kyle Orton against Peyton Manning.  We can’t honestly take Kyle Orton, on the road, in that matchup.  Teased down to 3, there’s alot of value in this pick.

Packers -12.5 vs. Falcons:
Matt Ryan is terrible outside of his dome.  The Packers are on an incredible streak right now.  Atlanta shows no signs of life on defense.  Eddie Lacey should be easily established in the run game.  It’s hard to ever love these big spreads, but at the end of the day, it’s Aaron Rodgers, at home, on MNF, at Matt Ryan.  Case closed.

Teaser 3 of the Day: Packers -5.5/New England & San Diego Over 44.5


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