NFL 12/21

Vikings +7.5 @ Miami:

Traveling to Miami is never an easy place to play.  That being said, there’s value in the Vikings this week and we’ll tell you why.  One Miami is beat up after two bad losses to Baltimore and New England.  Two, the Vikings are showing grit in their defensive effort the past few weeks.  This young Vikings team is proving they can stop the pass and the run.  Over their past three games, the Vikes are giving up about 16 points, per game.  Minnesota has a chance to pull off the upset.  We think they lose a really close one, 24 – 21 Fish.

Teaser of the Day: Green Bay -5/Detroit -1.5:

The Bucs have some signs of life on offense, but their issue all season has been turnovers.  Tampa Bay has no consistency on defense, either.  Green Bay needs this one way more than Tampa.  We can’t see Green Bay not showing up with urgency.  Tease this down and it should be a lock.  Eddie Lacey will run rampant on the Bucs defense.

Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback, a team that doesn’t use Matt Forte enough, and a defense that may be one of the worst in NFL history.  There’s absolutely no reason on earth to bet on Marc Trestman’s Bears.  Oh yeah, and Detroit brings one of the best defenses in the league to the table.  Lions big, 24 – 7.

Detroit -8.5 vs. Chicago:

See above.

Teaser 2 of the Day: Pats -3.5/Colts & Cowboys Over 48

The Jets can stop the run, but they’re horrible against the pass.  This means a huge day for Rob Gronkowski.  Michael Vick, or Geno Smith, it doesn’t matter, they’re both turnover prone.  The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New England is fantastic in November and December, historically.  Enough said, Pats 41 – Jets 10.

The Colts and Cowboys offer two of the best offenses in the league.  Dallas’ defense is solid against the run, which the Colts could care less because they can’t run.  We can’t see a game where Andrew Luck doesn’t have at least 3 TD throws.  Dallas can establish their run and pass, even with DeMarco Murray hurt, against a bad Colts defense.  This is a fantastic teaser.  Final score Dallas 34 – Colts 31.

Colts @ Cowboys Over 55:

See above.

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Kansas City/Under 48:

Kansas City has one of the better run defenses in the league, but don’t expect the Steelers to abandon the run.  Pittsburgh’s finally getting healthy defensively, so they should be able to key in on Jamaal Charles.  Home Field advantage and the better passing game is the difference in this one.  KC has no playmakers on the edge, whereas the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton.  Pittsburgh 24 – 17.

Baltimore vs. Houston Under 42:

There’s so many questions on the offensive side of this one that it makes the spread scary.  The over under is absolutely fantastic then and we’ll tell you why.  First of all, Houston’s defense is clicking on all cylinders.  Baltimore will not have the ability to run against J.J. Watt’s front 7.  Joe Flacco will take a good half to get in a groove with Watt batting down his passes, as well.  On the other side, Baltimore’s defense will key in on a solid run game.  There’s no way Houston can put pressure on 3rd string QB Tom Savage to carry the load yet.  Ground and pound will be important, with two solid defenses leading the way.  We think Baltimore could cover, but play it safe and play the under.  Final score 24 – 17 Ravens.

Oakland +7.5 vs. Buffalo:

Defense travels well and both teams have a defense.  Oakland will really struggle with that pass rush of Buffalo.  This is more of a hunch bet, because Buffalo will definitely show up in their playoff hunt run.  Cross country travel from Buffalo to Oakland will no doubt be an impact.  Buffalo is coming off their most emotional win of the season.  It’s an impossible spot not to have a bit of a letdown.  Buffalo wins, but Oakland covers.  Buffalo 27 – Oakland 24.

Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seattle:

Seattle might be the most dangerous team in the league right now.  Arizona’s down to their third string QB in Ryan Lindley, whom we can’t stand by the way.  That being said, the NFC West is a dogfight and Bruce Arians has had his club ready to play all season.  The Cardinals pass rush is fantastic, especially at home.  They haven’t overextended themselves, offensively, all season so why would they now?  The Cards create a couple turnovers and show why they have the best defense in football.  Seattle will have to struggle and steal this late, on a late 4th quarter, Marshawn Lynch TD.  Seahawks 21 – Cardinals 17.

Monday Night Teaser: Cincinnati +10.5/Over 40

Monday night in Cincinnati, this game will be electric.  Both teams have solid defenses and the Bengals will be ready to play.  A couple differences separate Denver.  One, whose going to cover a healthy Julius and Demaryius Thomas?  Secondly, Denver is number 2 in the league against the run.  In the Bengals’ past 4 wins Jeremy Hill has been a huge part of their success.  The run game will be minimized greatly against Denver.  Thirdly, the Bengals are 24th in the NFL against the rush.  That being said, over the last month, Cincinnati is Top 10 in the league against the run.  There’s a lot of stats that point to both sides.  That leads us to think this will be a very tight game.  There’s no chance on earth we’re taking Andy Dalton over Peyton Manning.  You can’t logically bet that, but we do like Cincy’s defense (especially at home) over Denver’s.  The safe play in this game is giving Cincy 10.5 points and bumping the over.  Peyton Manning always finds a way to get his points, and we just feel like Cincy will show up, knowing that a win clinches a playoff birth.  A very tough call in this game.  We actually think Cincy will find a way to win 24 – 21, BUT being that Andy Dalton’s on the field, play this the safe way and push the over +10.5 points for the home team.

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