NFL 11/30

Teaser of The Day Colts -3/Ravens +1:

Colt McCoy is starting at quarterback for the Skins, so what!  Washington’s defense is still awful.  Expect the Colts to score early and often.  Three points, at home, against the Skins, is the most guaranteed teaser you’ll find.  The Ravens are on fire right now, winning 7 of their last 10 and going 4 – 1 at home on the season.  The travel for San Diego will be an issue.  The even bigger issue is the Ravens are 6th in the league against the rush.  If Phillip Rivers has to be one dimensional, we’ll see sacks in this one.  Ravens win 27 – 21.

Arizona -1.5 @ Atlanta:

You can’t ever love having to start Drew Stanton at QB, but the value here is the defense.  Arizona is at the top of the league in almost every statistical category.  Matt Ryan is known to throw the ball to the other team.  Turnovers and Patrick Peterson locking down Julio Jones, are the difference.  A smarter, more efficient, Cardinals team, wins.  Arizona 22 – Atlanta 13.

Rams -7 vs. Oakland:

Oakland finally got their win!  Now get ready for the big letdown.  St. Louis knows they can play with anyone.  They’ve beaten some of the best the league has to offer.  The superior pass rush, and cross country travel, are huge issues.  Rams win big, 31 – 14.  Expect 5 sacks and at least 2 Derek Carr turnovers.  Oakland is not the same team on the road.

New England +3 @ Green Bay/Under59:

We may very well be looking at this year’s Super Bowl Preview.  Being that we’ve got two even teams this isn’t an easy game to pick.  The value lies in the Pats for a couple reasons.  One they’ve got the better defense.  Vince Wilfork leads one of the best run stopping defenses in the league.  Eddie Lacey will be limited in this game.  We don’t expect New England to run much better, either.  The reason New England takes this is their corner play.  Browner and Revis get physical with Nelson and Cobb.  The Pats steal a close one, on the road 27 – 24.

Kansas City +1.5 vs. Denver:

It’s the toughest place to play in football.  Kansas City’s coming off a tough loss at Oakland.  It all spells upset city.  Jamaal Charles and a rejuvenated Chiefs defense, cause too much havoc for an inconsistent Broncos team.  Broncos continue to have issues stopping the run, as KC pulls this one out 28 – 24.

Jets +7 vs. Fish:

This is the perfect trap door game.  Miami is coming off a game they had won at Denver.  They play a team with two wins on the season, in a cold environment, in New Jersey!!  Miami has to play their tails off to make the playoffs, but there’s so many lack of motivating factors in this one.  Home teams generally show up to play well on MNF, and the Jets are getting +7.  Add in that the Jets are top 5 in the league against the run, and there’s lots of reason to like NYJ this week.  Fish win, but close 21 – 18.

Bengals -3.5 @ Tampa Bay:

It’s a mismatch of more talented teams.  The Bengals are headed in the right direction, while the Bucs are falling apart.  Tampa Bay comes out sluggishly after knowing they should’ve beaten Chicago last week.  The Bengals are healthy at tailback, and defensively now.  Cincy rolls big in getting ready for a playoff push.  Bengals win 27 – 10.

Cleveland +3 @ Buffalo:

This is a trick game, because Buffalo’s defense is so fantastic.  The Bills will be in this game until the end.  Cleveland is almost as good defensively, but the reason we like Cleveland is quarterback play.  Kyle Orton is terrible, and Brian Hoyer has proven he’s a better playmaker.  Cleveland finds a way to win another close one 26 -24.  Either way, the value is in the team getting the points.

Houston vs. Tennessee Under 43.5:

The under is a lock here.  Both teams have to run the ball to be efficient on offense.  They simply don’t pass it well enough.  With Arian Foster back, Bill O’Brien knows he needs to feed his bell cow.  He also knows Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be managed, or he’ll turn the ball over.  Houston has a top 5 defense in the league.  It all spells the perfect storm for the under.  Take this one big time.  It’s one of our locks of the weekend.

Steelers -5 vs. Saints:

We’re done believing in the Saints.  New Orleans is awful on the road, and this season they’re awful at home.  At some point, you are who you are.  The Saints are awful on defense and inconsistent on offense.  Pittsburgh is a great team at home.  They also return 5, healthy, defensive starters, this week.  LeVeon Bell rolls over a weak New Orleans front.  Steelers pull out a high scoring affair 34 – 20.

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