NCAAF 11/29

Mississippi State -3 @ Ole Miss:

Easiest pick of the weekend, bankroll this bad boy.  We’ve got no LaQuan Treadwell for Ole Miss.  We’ve got Dak Prescott, who is vastly more consistent than Bo Wallace.  Miss. State owns the size advantage own both front lines.  We’ve got the more physical running back on the Bulldogs’ size.  Miss. State needs a convincing win to pop into the college football final 4.  Ole Miss’ only remote chance is that this is a rivalry game at home.  Love the Bulldogs here.  Miss. State blasts Ole Miss 37 – 20.

Minnesota +14 @ Wisconsin:

It’s not a lock here.  Playing at Camp Randall is a challenge, especially with the way Joel Stave has played lately.  Melvin Gordon could very well run all over the Gophers.  The one thing the Gophers do well is limit the run.  Minnesota has a stout run game in their own right.  Minnesota’s horrible pass game could be a problem, but at the end of the day we feel that the Gopher’s intensity in playing for a Big Ten Title birth, will keep this close.  Gophers backdoor cover this, with a late touchdown.  Wisconsin 33 – Minnesota 20.

Wake Forest +19.5 @ Duke:

Duke is injured and reeling after two disappointing losses, to finish their season.  The lack of depth and fact that they’re playing Wake Forest gives little motivation to the Dukies going into this one.  Duke wins, but we believe in Wake Forest hanging around in this one.  Duke wins 27 – 10 in an, ugly, turnover prone, football game.

Rice vs. LA Tech Over 50.5:

Both teams get out and go in the shotgun spread.  Rice hung 40 + on an Old Dominion team that just beat Louisiana Tech last week.  La Tech is scoring 35 + points per game.  Expect them to put up such a performance at home.  Rice is scoring almost 30 points per game.  This line would have been perfect around 57 – 58 points.  This line simply is too low for teams that play this fast.  Louisiana Tech 35 – Rice 21.  This game could get out of control and close to over by halftime.  A really nice pick here.

Kentucky +14 @ Louisville:

This is a perfect trap game for Louisville.  Kentucky’s talent has caught up to Louisville.  Louisville, and backup QB, Reggie Bonnafon are getting way too much hype after stealing a win, against a reeling Notre Dame squad.  Kentucky is hearing the underdog talk, going into a rivalry game.  Expect a low-scoring, dogfight.  The Wildcats force some turnovers in a close fight.  Louisville wins 17 – 14, in a great game.

Teaser #1 of the Day:  North Carolina +1/Northwestern -1

UNC is at full throttle right now.  The Tar Heels are averaging over 36 points per game, in their last 5 games.  In that timespan, UNC is 4 – 1 with wins over Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, and Duke.  Had we seen this UNC team earlier, who knows what their record might be.  NC State’s best wins are Syracuse and Wake Forest.  UNC drops the hammer in this one 52 – 21.

This game will be close, but we can’t get over the fact that Illinois hasn’t won a road game all season.  Northwestern is coming in with a convincing win at Purdue and a season saving win over Notre Dame.  Wildcats pull out a close one to go bowling.  At home, and with the better defense, we’ll take the Wildcats.

Temple vs. Cincinnati Under 57.5:

Temple brings a stifling defense to the table and an inconsistent offense.  Traveling to Philly, after a blowout win at Connecticut, should be a letdown game for Cincy.  Temple needs the win to be bowl eligible.  The old adage is it takes two teams to hit the over.  We can’t see Temple scoring 30 + to help make this over.  If Cincy plays one poor half, which we believe they will, the under hits easily.  Cincy takes this late, but to the tune of 30 – 17.  The under is a solid play here.  We just can’t buy Temple’s offense.

Utah State +9.5 @ Boise State:

No place has been tougher to play than the blue turf of Boise State.  The Broncos have not lost a game at home this season.  This ain’t your daddy’s Broncos though.  Boise State is not the defense of old.  The Broncos give up 28 points per game on defense.  They have 9 and 10 points wins, at home, over San Diego State and Fresno State.  This game could decide who goes to the Mountain West Championship game.  Utah State has a solid defense, only allowing 18 points, per game.  Utah State has a shot to win this one, outright, the value lies in the Aggies.  Aggies lose 28 – 20, but cover the 9.5 point spread.

Washington -3 @ Washington State:

Complete mismatch in this one. Despite the rivalry game, there’s too much talent on the Husky side.  This is both team’s super bowl, but the Huskies have proven they can play, even the best the Pac 12 competitively.  The X factor is an average defense in Washington, versus an atrocious defense in Washington State.  The Cougs allow, almost, 40 points per game and give up around 450 yards of total offense, per game.  Dawgs win a competitive Apple Cup 47 – 30 and springboard their team into an even better 2015 season.

Georgia Tech +13 @ Georgia:

Georgia Tech getting absolutely no respect here.  We’ve got a team that’s about to play for an ACC title and that puts up points, at will, on their opponents.  Georgia is one of the toughest environments in football to play, but without Todd Gurley this game will be interesting.  Nick Chubb will have his way, as usual, but expect Georgia to put up their share of points.  Dawgs pull this one out 41 – 30, but 13 points is just too many to give an offense like the Yellowjackets.

Baylor vs. Texas Tech Over 79:

Texas Tech is one of the worst defenses in the country in almost every statistical category.  Baylor is trying to grab every style point they can to place themselves in the College Football Final 4.  Both teams don’t slow down their pace.  Both teams chuck the rock, all day long, so when the ball isn’t being completed, the clock will keep stopping.  Remember, TCU, who gave up 60 + to Baylor, hung 86 on Texas Tech!  Final score Baylor 79 – Texas Tech 31.  This is an absolute lock.

Oregon State +21 vs. Oregon:

It’s tough betting against the Ducks’ offense, but the Civil War is an absolute battle.  Both teams know each other inside and out.  Oregon has always had trouble playing in Corvallis.  Beavers lose, but hang around in convincing fashion.  Ducks win, somewhere to the tune, of 41 – 23.

Teaser #2 of the Day: Alabama -2/Michigan State -6:

Auburn’s defense is awful.  Alabama’s run game asserts itself early and a couple early turnovers cost Auburn.  Bama wins 35 – 14.  Michigan State is a different class than Penn State.  PSU can hang around in this one due to a great defense, but their lackluster offense can’t hang with a superior Sparty.  Sparty pulls away late, in a hotly contested battle.  Sparty covers on a late touchdown 24 – 13.

Florida +7.5 @ Florida State:

Florida’s got the better defense and there’s no love loss in this one.  Florida State hasn’t hardly covered a line all season.  Treon Harris has the Gators offense moving.  The Gators have the better front 4 on defense and better corner play to match up.  Florida State finds it’s way to survive again, but we’re talking a late, late, steal.  Seminoles win on a last second touchdown 34 -31.

South Carolina +4.5 @ Clemson:

Clemson has the defense to stop South Carolina’s high powered run game, but the difference in this one is Quarterback play.  Cole Stoudt is terrible for the Tigers.  Clemson’s great front 4 keeps this close, which makes us love So Car getting 4.5.  South Carolina wins this sucker, outright, 24 – 20.  Turnovers are the difference, as Clemson turns the ball over 3 + times.

Teaser#3 of the Day Notre Dame +14/Under 70:

Both teams come into this game reeling.  Brian Kelly may have completely lost his team in last week’s loss, which is a definite issue.  USC has the slightly better defense, but at some point a lack of depth is going to catch up to the Trojans.  That 53 scholarship players costs USC in this one.  Notre Dame steals a tough road win 34 – 28.  Everett Gholston is the reason there’s so much value for the Irish here.

 

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