NFL 12/21

Vikings +7.5 @ Miami:

Traveling to Miami is never an easy place to play.  That being said, there’s value in the Vikings this week and we’ll tell you why.  One Miami is beat up after two bad losses to Baltimore and New England.  Two, the Vikings are showing grit in their defensive effort the past few weeks.  This young Vikings team is proving they can stop the pass and the run.  Over their past three games, the Vikes are giving up about 16 points, per game.  Minnesota has a chance to pull off the upset.  We think they lose a really close one, 24 – 21 Fish.

Teaser of the Day: Green Bay -5/Detroit -1.5:

The Bucs have some signs of life on offense, but their issue all season has been turnovers.  Tampa Bay has no consistency on defense, either.  Green Bay needs this one way more than Tampa.  We can’t see Green Bay not showing up with urgency.  Tease this down and it should be a lock.  Eddie Lacey will run rampant on the Bucs defense.

Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback, a team that doesn’t use Matt Forte enough, and a defense that may be one of the worst in NFL history.  There’s absolutely no reason on earth to bet on Marc Trestman’s Bears.  Oh yeah, and Detroit brings one of the best defenses in the league to the table.  Lions big, 24 – 7.

Detroit -8.5 vs. Chicago:

See above.

Teaser 2 of the Day: Pats -3.5/Colts & Cowboys Over 48

The Jets can stop the run, but they’re horrible against the pass.  This means a huge day for Rob Gronkowski.  Michael Vick, or Geno Smith, it doesn’t matter, they’re both turnover prone.  The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New England is fantastic in November and December, historically.  Enough said, Pats 41 – Jets 10.

The Colts and Cowboys offer two of the best offenses in the league.  Dallas’ defense is solid against the run, which the Colts could care less because they can’t run.  We can’t see a game where Andrew Luck doesn’t have at least 3 TD throws.  Dallas can establish their run and pass, even with DeMarco Murray hurt, against a bad Colts defense.  This is a fantastic teaser.  Final score Dallas 34 – Colts 31.

Colts @ Cowboys Over 55:

See above.

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Kansas City/Under 48:

Kansas City has one of the better run defenses in the league, but don’t expect the Steelers to abandon the run.  Pittsburgh’s finally getting healthy defensively, so they should be able to key in on Jamaal Charles.  Home Field advantage and the better passing game is the difference in this one.  KC has no playmakers on the edge, whereas the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton.  Pittsburgh 24 – 17.

Baltimore vs. Houston Under 42:

There’s so many questions on the offensive side of this one that it makes the spread scary.  The over under is absolutely fantastic then and we’ll tell you why.  First of all, Houston’s defense is clicking on all cylinders.  Baltimore will not have the ability to run against J.J. Watt’s front 7.  Joe Flacco will take a good half to get in a groove with Watt batting down his passes, as well.  On the other side, Baltimore’s defense will key in on a solid run game.  There’s no way Houston can put pressure on 3rd string QB Tom Savage to carry the load yet.  Ground and pound will be important, with two solid defenses leading the way.  We think Baltimore could cover, but play it safe and play the under.  Final score 24 – 17 Ravens.

Oakland +7.5 vs. Buffalo:

Defense travels well and both teams have a defense.  Oakland will really struggle with that pass rush of Buffalo.  This is more of a hunch bet, because Buffalo will definitely show up in their playoff hunt run.  Cross country travel from Buffalo to Oakland will no doubt be an impact.  Buffalo is coming off their most emotional win of the season.  It’s an impossible spot not to have a bit of a letdown.  Buffalo wins, but Oakland covers.  Buffalo 27 – Oakland 24.

Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seattle:

Seattle might be the most dangerous team in the league right now.  Arizona’s down to their third string QB in Ryan Lindley, whom we can’t stand by the way.  That being said, the NFC West is a dogfight and Bruce Arians has had his club ready to play all season.  The Cardinals pass rush is fantastic, especially at home.  They haven’t overextended themselves, offensively, all season so why would they now?  The Cards create a couple turnovers and show why they have the best defense in football.  Seattle will have to struggle and steal this late, on a late 4th quarter, Marshawn Lynch TD.  Seahawks 21 – Cardinals 17.

Monday Night Teaser: Cincinnati +10.5/Over 40

Monday night in Cincinnati, this game will be electric.  Both teams have solid defenses and the Bengals will be ready to play.  A couple differences separate Denver.  One, whose going to cover a healthy Julius and Demaryius Thomas?  Secondly, Denver is number 2 in the league against the run.  In the Bengals’ past 4 wins Jeremy Hill has been a huge part of their success.  The run game will be minimized greatly against Denver.  Thirdly, the Bengals are 24th in the NFL against the rush.  That being said, over the last month, Cincinnati is Top 10 in the league against the run.  There’s a lot of stats that point to both sides.  That leads us to think this will be a very tight game.  There’s no chance on earth we’re taking Andy Dalton over Peyton Manning.  You can’t logically bet that, but we do like Cincy’s defense (especially at home) over Denver’s.  The safe play in this game is giving Cincy 10.5 points and bumping the over.  Peyton Manning always finds a way to get his points, and we just feel like Cincy will show up, knowing that a win clinches a playoff birth.  A very tough call in this game.  We actually think Cincy will find a way to win 24 – 21, BUT being that Andy Dalton’s on the field, play this the safe way and push the over +10.5 points for the home team.

NFL 12/20

Teaser of the Day Philly -1/San Fran & SD Under 48:

Washington’s back to RGIII again, which is actually a little bit scary as Desean Jackson will like to stick it to his old team.  What’s even scarier is the Skins’ defense has showed a little sign of life, at time.  All that being said, we can’t see Philly losing a huge playoff implication game that means absolutely nothing to the Skins.  Philly wins close 27 – 21.

San Fran can’t throw with Colin Kaepernick, right now.  San Diego has one of the top 15 defenses in the league.  The Chargers can’t run, nor can San Fran throw.  There’s too many questions, whereas the 9ers will stick to their ground and pound to try and win.  At the end of the day, it’s hard to see too many points being scored.  Final score 21 -17 Chargers.

Chargers vs. 49ers Under 41:
See Above.

NFL 12/18

Jags -3.5 vs. Titans:
Our advice is take the safer play and buy the extra .5 point in this one to ensure the push.  Either way, we’ve got the home team who has the better quarterback.  We’ve got the by far better defense in Jacksonville.  The Titans have zero run game, whatsoever.  Tennessee is giving up points left and right.  They’ve also showed no signs of life all season.  Jacksonville just played Baltimore tight, they recently beat the Giants, and Blake Bortles is starting to get it figured out.  Jags are the easy pick.  Take the -3.5, but if you can buy the .5 point, buy it.  Jags win 24 – 14.

 

NFL 12/14

Teaser of the Day: Seattle -3/New England -.5

The Seahawks have the best defense in the league.  Over the past two seasons their win percentage, at home, is well over 90%.  San Francisco is free falling faster and faster.  The wheels really fall off this week after a terrible loss at Oakland.  If you’ve watched San Fran, at all, you know that Colin Kaepernick has zero confidence left.  The other half of this teaser is a lock.  We get a Bill Belichek squad, at home, against a divisional opponent (that beat them at Miami), AND the Patriots need every win to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Too much riding in New England’s favor.  The big difference here is the Pats have a ground game now, that they did not in week one.  The Fish won’t be able to tee off on Brady, like they did in their previous match up.  Pats’ win big 35 – 17.

Cincinnati (0) @ Cleveland:

This seems like suicide if you know how much Cleveland has owned Cincinnati the last couple years.  BUT, this season has been a crazy one where every time the Bengals have had their backs against the wall, they come up with the big win.  Inevitably, the blow the game that gives them cushion, as we saw last week against the Steelers.  Cincy has to have this one just as much as Cleveland.  We don’t believe Johnny Football is ready to make a big splash against this seasoned Bengals’ team yet.  Bengals win rather easily, 28 – 17.

Houston +7 @ Indy:

It’s obvious Indianapolis has one of the toughest offenses in the NFL.  What the Colts did to finish last week’s game against Cleveland was flat out impressive.  As great as Indy’s offense is, their defense is equally as poor.  Houston is finding it’s stride.  They know Indy’s system inside and out.  J.J. Watt leads one of the best defenses in the league into Indy.  Too much power running sets Indy back in this one.  Houston loses a tight one 24 – 21.

Steelers -2.5 @ Atlanta/Over 55:

Julio Jones is dinged up, if he plays at all.  Meaning, Roddy White is the lone weapon at wideout.  Pittsburgh has a top 5 run defense in the league.  As bad as their passing defense is, the Steelers have the better, deeper, team.  Pittsburgh finds a way to win this shootout.  Too much Leveon Bell for the Falcons.  Final score 34 – 27 Steelers.

Seattle -10 vs. San Francisco:

Big spreads are usually suicide in the NFL.  That being said, San Francisco has been awful at Seattle the last few years, when they were a Super Bowl contender.  The 9ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL in red zone efficiency.  Field goals do not get it done up in Seattle.  It’ll be a slobberknocker again.  Seattle might blow this thing open early, especially with how turnover prone Colin Kaepernick is right now.  Final score Seattle 34 – San Francisco 9.

Late Night Teaser: Dallas +10.5/Over 48

We’ll go with the team that controls the ground and pound.  Both teams like to establish it, but Dallas has been able to run on every defense in the NFL.  We don’t see that stopping against an Eagles team that is 18th in the league in rush defense and 26th in the league in pass defense.  With as many plays as the Eagles get off, this should be a track meet.  We just feel more comfortable putting this in a teaser.  Dallas wins on the road 28 – 21.

Oakland +10.5 @ Kansas City:

This is a really hard take knowing how dominant the Chiefs are at home.  This Chiefs team blasted the likes of New England by 30 at home.  That being said, the Raiders have found their passing game recently, while the Chiefs are reeling in their secondary.  Surprisingly, Oakland is 7th in the league against the pass.  If Oakland can find a way to, somewhat, minimize Jamaal Charles, this will be easy money.  Expect Andre Holmes to have another big day for the Raiders.  Stat of the day, Oakland has covered 10.5 points, 5 of 6 times on the road this season.  Chiefs win 28 – 20.

Jets -3 @ Tennessee:
The fact that New York is favored over anyone shows how bad Tennessee is. Now Bishop Sankey is truly horrible, but you have to like the fact that the Jets have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  Tennessee has absolutely nothing going for them on defense.  The Jets have been much more competitive the last few weeks, so you have to like where they’re headed coming into this one.  One thing we know with Rex Ryan teams is they never stop playing.  Jets win on defense 27 – 9.

Saints -3 @ Bears:

I can’t believe we’re picking the Saints on the road.  You cannot find two more inconsistent teams than these two.  We’re sheerly going on gut feeling here.  The Bears are a one trick pony in Alshon Jeffery and they have absolutely nothing left to play for.  The Saints keep their season alive with a 34 – 20 victory.  Bears defense chokes another one away.

Jaguars +14 @ Ravens:

We’re going on sheer value here.  Fourteen points in the NFL is a gift.  The Jags are playing better and why would Baltimore bring their “A” game for a team like Jacksonville?  The Jags don’t win, but they manage to hang around.  Final score 27 – 17 Ravens.

 

NFL 12/11

Cardinals +5.5 @ Rams:
The Rams are on a tear right now and everybody is riding them going into this one.  It’s the perfect time to jump the opposite direction.  Arizona beat the Rams, and beat them handily, with Drew Stanton before.  They need this win more than ever, for their playoff push.  Even if the Rams win, we can’t picture it not being a barn burner.  The Rams finally come back to earth.  Worst case scenario the Rams win by a field goal.  We like Arizona to win.  Cardinals 24 – 17.

NFL 12/6

Tampa Bay +10 @ Detroit:

Detroit’s coming off an emotional win on Thanksgiving.  They’ll definitely have the momentum playing at home, but we think Detroit’s got some chinks in the armor, and they know it from their loss to the Patriots.  The Bucs have been able to play with almost anyone.  If they can limit turnovers, this is a lock.  There’s value in the Bucs getting 10.

Teaser 1 of the Day: Baltimore +10/Saints -3:

Carolina is absolutely awful.  They have no run game whatsoever.  New Orleans finally got their big signature road win at Pittsburgh.  Coming back home to their dome knowing Atlanta will probably forgo their lead at Green Bay, is huge.  Baltimore has a chance to beat Miami this week.  Both teams are extremely evenly matched and in the middle of a tough playoff hunt.  Expect a barn-burner.  Getting 10 is a gift.

Indy vs. Cleveland Over 50/Indy -3:
Cleveland has an improved defense, but they haven’t faced anything like the Colts in their dome.  Indy will give up yards on the ground and through the air, in bunches.  Too much Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton here, but we don’t see how Cleveland doesn’t put up at least three touchdowns.  This is especially true now that Josh Gordon is back and healthy.  Indy wins 37 – 20.

St. Louis -3 @ Washington:

On what’s planet should Washington’s defense be favored to hang within 3 points of anyone?  The Skins are starting to play better, but they still give up big plays in bunches.  No other team is playing as efficiently as the Rams are either.  Rams win closer than expected 24 – 20.

Oakland +9.5 vs. San Francisco:

Over 72% of the betting public is riding the 9ers now.  Being so, it’s perfect timing to jump back on the Raiders.  San Fran has been horrible on the road this season.  The San Francisco offense has been sputtering and worst of all Colin Kaepernick is turning the ball over.  San Fran’s run gets limited in this one and it ends up closer than expected.  49ers win 22 – 17.

Seattle +0 @ Philly:

Seattle has the lockdown defense and the one thing we know is Philly is soft up front defensively.  Expect heavy dosages of Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  When Philly has faced defenses like this they haven’t been able to assert their pace.  Physical secondary coverage slows down speed burners.  The Seahawks lock down Philly and cruise to a 28 – 13 victory.

Teaser 2 of the Day:  Seattle +7/Denver -3:

See above on Seattle.  Buffalo’s defense is great.  They’ve kept them competitive with any team in the league.  A couple things stand out though.  This bad boy is in Mile High.  Traveling from Buffalo to Mile High is no easy task.  It’s still Kyle Orton against Peyton Manning.  We can’t honestly take Kyle Orton, on the road, in that matchup.  Teased down to 3, there’s alot of value in this pick.

Packers -12.5 vs. Falcons:
Matt Ryan is terrible outside of his dome.  The Packers are on an incredible streak right now.  Atlanta shows no signs of life on defense.  Eddie Lacey should be easily established in the run game.  It’s hard to ever love these big spreads, but at the end of the day, it’s Aaron Rodgers, at home, on MNF, at Matt Ryan.  Case closed.

Teaser 3 of the Day: Packers -5.5/New England & San Diego Over 44.5

 

NFL 12/4

Teaser of the Night: Bears +11.5/Over 44.5

After a week off vacation we’re back folks!  I know what you’re saying, how can anyone take the Bears and that defense?  The NFL is a cyclical game.  The Bears’ last chance gasp is this game and the Cowboys are notorious chokers come November and December.  Both teams run rampant over each other.  We like the home team getting 11.5 in a teaser.  The over here should be cake with the level of weapons on both sides.  Cowboys win 27 – 23.

NFL 11/30

Teaser of The Day Colts -3/Ravens +1:

Colt McCoy is starting at quarterback for the Skins, so what!  Washington’s defense is still awful.  Expect the Colts to score early and often.  Three points, at home, against the Skins, is the most guaranteed teaser you’ll find.  The Ravens are on fire right now, winning 7 of their last 10 and going 4 – 1 at home on the season.  The travel for San Diego will be an issue.  The even bigger issue is the Ravens are 6th in the league against the rush.  If Phillip Rivers has to be one dimensional, we’ll see sacks in this one.  Ravens win 27 – 21.

Arizona -1.5 @ Atlanta:

You can’t ever love having to start Drew Stanton at QB, but the value here is the defense.  Arizona is at the top of the league in almost every statistical category.  Matt Ryan is known to throw the ball to the other team.  Turnovers and Patrick Peterson locking down Julio Jones, are the difference.  A smarter, more efficient, Cardinals team, wins.  Arizona 22 – Atlanta 13.

Rams -7 vs. Oakland:

Oakland finally got their win!  Now get ready for the big letdown.  St. Louis knows they can play with anyone.  They’ve beaten some of the best the league has to offer.  The superior pass rush, and cross country travel, are huge issues.  Rams win big, 31 – 14.  Expect 5 sacks and at least 2 Derek Carr turnovers.  Oakland is not the same team on the road.

New England +3 @ Green Bay/Under59:

We may very well be looking at this year’s Super Bowl Preview.  Being that we’ve got two even teams this isn’t an easy game to pick.  The value lies in the Pats for a couple reasons.  One they’ve got the better defense.  Vince Wilfork leads one of the best run stopping defenses in the league.  Eddie Lacey will be limited in this game.  We don’t expect New England to run much better, either.  The reason New England takes this is their corner play.  Browner and Revis get physical with Nelson and Cobb.  The Pats steal a close one, on the road 27 – 24.

Kansas City +1.5 vs. Denver:

It’s the toughest place to play in football.  Kansas City’s coming off a tough loss at Oakland.  It all spells upset city.  Jamaal Charles and a rejuvenated Chiefs defense, cause too much havoc for an inconsistent Broncos team.  Broncos continue to have issues stopping the run, as KC pulls this one out 28 – 24.

Jets +7 vs. Fish:

This is the perfect trap door game.  Miami is coming off a game they had won at Denver.  They play a team with two wins on the season, in a cold environment, in New Jersey!!  Miami has to play their tails off to make the playoffs, but there’s so many lack of motivating factors in this one.  Home teams generally show up to play well on MNF, and the Jets are getting +7.  Add in that the Jets are top 5 in the league against the run, and there’s lots of reason to like NYJ this week.  Fish win, but close 21 – 18.

Bengals -3.5 @ Tampa Bay:

It’s a mismatch of more talented teams.  The Bengals are headed in the right direction, while the Bucs are falling apart.  Tampa Bay comes out sluggishly after knowing they should’ve beaten Chicago last week.  The Bengals are healthy at tailback, and defensively now.  Cincy rolls big in getting ready for a playoff push.  Bengals win 27 – 10.

Cleveland +3 @ Buffalo:

This is a trick game, because Buffalo’s defense is so fantastic.  The Bills will be in this game until the end.  Cleveland is almost as good defensively, but the reason we like Cleveland is quarterback play.  Kyle Orton is terrible, and Brian Hoyer has proven he’s a better playmaker.  Cleveland finds a way to win another close one 26 -24.  Either way, the value is in the team getting the points.

Houston vs. Tennessee Under 43.5:

The under is a lock here.  Both teams have to run the ball to be efficient on offense.  They simply don’t pass it well enough.  With Arian Foster back, Bill O’Brien knows he needs to feed his bell cow.  He also knows Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be managed, or he’ll turn the ball over.  Houston has a top 5 defense in the league.  It all spells the perfect storm for the under.  Take this one big time.  It’s one of our locks of the weekend.

Steelers -5 vs. Saints:

We’re done believing in the Saints.  New Orleans is awful on the road, and this season they’re awful at home.  At some point, you are who you are.  The Saints are awful on defense and inconsistent on offense.  Pittsburgh is a great team at home.  They also return 5, healthy, defensive starters, this week.  LeVeon Bell rolls over a weak New Orleans front.  Steelers pull out a high scoring affair 34 – 20.

NFL Picks 11/27

Teaser of the Day: Seattle +8/Philly & Dallas Over 47.5:

This is really hard coming from a resident 49ers fan, but based on the recent evidence, it’s impossible to pick the 9ers.  San Francisco’s offensive woes are a huge issue.  They refuse to run the ball consistently, have gone away from Kaepernick’s bread and butter read option, and they don’t throw to one of the most athletic tight ends in football.  Combine that with the fact that their linebackers stop the run, but can’t defend in pass coverage and they’ve got issues.  Replacing Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis is impossible to do, despite solid play from Chris Borland.  The value lies in the Seahawks bumped up at +8.

There’s not enough defense in Dallas or Philly to take an under.  Both teams play fast and furiously.  Dez Bryant is a matchup nightmare for Philly, and the ground game can easily establish itself against Philly.  Hell, if the Packers could run against Philly, Dallas certainly can.  Chip Kelly never let’s off the gas pedal.  Even if they fall behind by 30, they’ll still keep playing fast.  Philly loses 34 – 31.

San Francisco vs. Seattle Under 41:

San Francisco’s defense is coming of age right now.  The return of Aldon Smith and emergence of Aaron Lynch, has really brought their pass rush together.  Seattle has the more prolific offense, right now, but expect the 9ers to be able to limit Marshawn Lynch for 3 quarters.  San Francisco has proven they are one of the most inefficient offenses in the NFL.  Nobody kicks more field goals than the 9ers, and don’t expect the legion of boom to give up many touchdowns.  Lock city on this under.  Seattle pulls off the road upset 19 – 12.

Philly @ Dallas Over 54.5

A prime time game, in Dallas, on Thanksgiving, expect both teams to come out amped.  Neither team is great defensively, other than forcing turnovers.  Very often in the NFL, turnovers mean points on the board quickly.  Final score Dallas 34 – 31.  The over hits in the Jerry Jones Dome.