NBA 12/9

Toronto @ Cleveland Over 205.5/Cleveland -6:

So you’re thinking this is dangerous because both teams just played each other Friday and they both come off games last night.  Wrong!  Toronto and Cleveland hate each other.  This is fast turning into a, talented, heated, rivalry.  Both teams come off a low scoring output Friday and learn from mistakes in that contest.  This line hasn’t moved much, based on Friday’s game and we like that.  We think Vegas is scared the over might happen and they don’t want to push the line down too far.  We love that and the fact that Cleveland is scorching hot.  Toronto has to travel a long ways after playing a drag out battle the night before.  No Demar Derozan spells bad luck.  Cleveland wins 114 – 102.

Portland @ Detroit Over 197.5:

Portland can shoot the lights and they’ve proven that all season.  Detroit has the ability to score, when motivated.  Granted, Detroit is about as inconsistent as the day is long.  Their losing streak clearly show that.  That being said, we believe crappy teams show up to play when great teams come to town.  Detroit plays their tails off, but can’t pull out the win against a superiorly talented Portland squad.  Final score Portland 105 – Detroit 98.  This game goes over.

Memphis vs. Dallas Under 205:
Lock of the night.  No one controls pace better than Memphis in the grind house.  Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol will absolutely limit any easy scoring for Dallas.  Memphis’ offensive inconsistency is always an issue.  Their guards go cold at any moment.  Don’t expect Montae Ellis to be near the scorer with Tony Allen on him either.  Too many factors for Dallas to dominate the pace in this one.  Dallas may very well win, but we don’t think so.  Final score Memphis 103 – Dallas 98.

OKC vs. Milwaukee Under 201/Milwaukee +10:

A couple things lend toward the under here.  Milwaukee has issues putting up points as is.  OKC is finally healthy, so don’t expect easy buckets against Ibaka and Durant.  Milwaukee has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, so they should be able to hang with OKC for a half, at least.  Too much OKC in this one, but it doesn’t quite go over because of Milwaukee’s youth and inefficiency on offense.  Final score OKC 103 – Milwaukee 94.

Phoenix -4.5 vs. Miami/Under 203:
There’s no doubt Phoenix will get theirs on Miami.  The Suns can flat out stroke it and that’s why we like them -4.5.  Traveling home after a close loss to LAC shouldn’t be a hard transition.  The reason we like the under is there’s absolutely nothing to like about Miami.  Outside of Chris Bosh, what do they have to be remotely competitive?  Dwyane Wade is a shadow of his former “scoring” self.  Phoenix pulls away big and the under sneaks in here.  Final score Phoenix 107 – Miami 93.

Kings +3.5 @ Lakers:

On what planet could you pick the Lakers right now?  They try to play fast, but can’t do it efficiently.  Their defense is atrocious.  Their best player is 40 years old.  Demarcus Cousins, or no Demarcus Cousins there’s a sheer talent disparity here.  Darren Collison and Rudy Gay will have their way with the Lakers entire team.  The Kings believe they can win and are playing with a confidence we haven’t seen from them in years’ past.  Kings win easily 117 – 108.

Spurs @ Jazz Over 194:

A bit of a trap door game here being that Utah blew a pathetic performance against Sacramento last night.  That being said Utah is an extremely tough place to get up to play.  The Spurs are supremely talented, so calling the line on this one is suicide.  Despite playing last night, we love the Jazz to come ready to play.  Gordon Heyward leads the way with some easy buckets coming from Derek Favors, as well.  Spurs win, but 194 is too low.  Final score Spurs 105 – Jazz 100.  Ride the over in this one.

NBA 12/8

Boston +9.5 @ Washington:

Boston has one of the highest scoring offenses in the league.  Their defense is lackluster, at best.  The C’s just beat the Wizards by 9, at home, the night before.  What possible reason do we have to believe this game will be any different a night later?  Had Washington gotten blasted by Boston, the night before, I might be worried.  This is lock city.  Boston loses an absolutely close one.  Wizards 103 – Celtics 101 on a John Wall buzzer beater.

Atlanta +1 @ Indiana:
These teams are mirror images of each other on the inside.  Expect David West and Paul Milsap to wash each other’s production out.  We actually like Al Horford to slightly outplay Roy Hibbert.  Don’t underestimate what Donald Sloan brings to the table, either.  This baby will be close.  The difference in this one is Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague.  The Hawks have two decided advantages in these players.  As long as Atlanta comes to play, which is always in question, the Hawks should win this one on guard play alone.  The value is in the Hawks.  Hawks win 95 – 91.

Nuggets +9 @ Raptors:

Denver looks to round off the tail end of a three game losing streak on the road.  Expect them to come ready to play tonight in trying to get back on track before heading home.  Without Demar Derozan this is an easy call.  The Raptors could’ve blown anybody out before, but not now without their all-star small forward.  Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson keep Toronto hanging around, but can’t pull out the win.  Denver upsets Toronto on the road 107 – 100.

Golden State @ Minnesota Over 213.5:

Too many points here to take either team on the line, but the pace and shooting ability lends itself very well to the over.  The splash brothers will have open threes and layups all day long.  This young T’Wolves squad doesn’t know how to play slow, or play defense yet, for that matter.  Warriors win this one, but we like the over as a solid play.  Final score Golden State 114 – T’Wolves 110.  Play the over.

Utah +5.5 @ Sacramento:

We’d give the Jazz a nice shot to cover this spread on a normal night.  Demarcus Cousin’s being out is a huge issue for Sacramento.  Expect Derek Favors and Enes Kanter to cause havoc inside, defensively, as well as get easy buckets early and often.  The Jazz smell blood without Cousins in the lineup.  Utah wins 103 -94 on the road.

Suns +7.5 @ Clippers/Over 214.5:

Phoenix and LAC both like to get up and down, so expect a fun game to watch.  The Suns speed and 3 point shooting should keep them in this sucker, until the very end.  Gerald Green and Goran Dragic will undoubtedly get their buckets.  Blake Griffin will get his without any real inside presence around for the Suns.  Jamaal Crawford should be the X – Factor in a close Clipper win.  Clippers win 108 – Suns 107 on a Jamaal Crawford 3 point buzzer beater.  Sweat it out for the W bettors!!!

NBA 12/5

OKC -13 @ Philly:

It’s a bad time for Philadelphia to be taking on Oklahoma City.  This is a Philly team that got their first win scoring 85 points against the T’Wolves!  Oklahoma City has a sense of urgency to win now and win emphatically.  If they want to get back into the Western Conference Playoff hunt they have to do so right now.  Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Jackson, and Lamb provide too much firepower.  OKC blasts Philly 120 -95.

Denver +5 @ Washington:

This isn’t the easiest game in the world to pick, but we think the line is stretched just far enough to favor the Nuggets.  The Wizards have better inside play, but the Nuggets have been finding efficiency in pushing the pace.  Ty Lawson and company go on the road and take this one 101 – 97.

Knicks +5 @ Charlotte:

This line is completely inflated right now.  The Knicks have to travel off a deflating loss to the Cavs yes, but put these two rosters on paper.  Outside of Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, the Knicks own the advantage at every other single position, including depth.  Knicks win a close one on the road 99 – 96.

Boston -3 vs. Lakers:

The Lakers haven’t shown us any reason to pick them, hardly all year.  Now they’re going to travel across the country and beat one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA?  We don’t think so.  Too much Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger.  We’ll take the C’s 112 – 103.

Utah vs. Orlando Over 192:

We hate the line in this one, but love the over under.  Both teams have consistent scoring.  Orlando likes to push the pace and get transition buckets, whereas Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors should have no trouble getting their points.  Final score Utah 105 – Orlando 94.  The over is a great play on the night.

San Antonio (o) vs. Memphis:

The Spurs have consistently been Memphis’ kryptonite over the years.  Tim Duncan does a fantastic job of taking Zach Randolph out of these games.  San Antonio is too efficient on offense, with their ball movement, for Memphis’ grind it out defense to matter.  If the Spurs hit their threes they’ll lock this in easy.  Spurs win by 10, 100 – 90.

Milwaukee vs. Miami Under 195:The Bucks have been trying to establish or more “grind it out” style of defensive play.  That will show itself more at home.  Miami may be without Luol Deng in this one.  The Heat are one of the more inconsistent shooting teams in the league this season, especially on the road. The under is the safe play here.  We expect a sloppy game.

Phoenix @ Dallas Over 215:

Two of the fastest, most efficient scoring teams, in the NBA taking the floor.  We get Dirk Nowitzki back.  We get both teams coming in rested.  We get both teams fighting for playoff supremacy.  This will be a hotly contested game.  We think Dallas pulls it out to the tune of 120 – 112.

Brooklyn +1.5 vs. Atlanta:

On paper the Hawks are slightly better, but the wrong team is getting points here.  The Hawks consistently lay eggs on the road.  Brooklyn is finally starting to gel.  A big win over the defending champs propels Brooklyn to another nice win at home.  In a back and forth contest, Brooklyn finds a way 102 – 93.

NBA 12/4

Cavs – 7 @ Knicks:

As much as their is actual reason to take the Knicks in this, we just can’t.  New York has cover 7 points or less in every single home game, but one this season.  The Cavs are 1- 6 on the road, this season, in cover 7 points, or more.  It’s a case of whose hot and whose not right now though.  The Cavs are starting to find themselves.  Kevin love is more involved in the offense, Kyrie Irvin is going to own any opponent the Knicks put on him, and Lebron James is in a class of his own.  The inside advantage of the Cavs is the difference.  Too much rebounding and defense from Verajao and Love.  Cavs blow out the Knicks by 25 +.

Indiana +9 @ Portland:

This is such a scary game, because Portland is an extremely tough place to play.  Secondly, Portland has a huge advantage at guard.  Lillard trumps any guard the Pacers put on the floor and Matthews and Batum absolutely sizzle three pointers at home.  David West is the key though.  He and Hibbert should be able to assert themselves in the post and limit Lamarcus Aldridge.  Just that slowing down of Aldridge and Lopez should be the difference.  This isn’t a lock, because of how lethal Portland’s offense is at home, but gut pick says Pacers cover.  Portland wins 99 – 91.

New Orleans +8.5 @ Golden State:

The one thing New Orleans can do is defend the rim.  Anthony Davis will have his way inside offensively against Draymond Green.  He and Asik can roam the paint to limit those ever so crucial layups the Warriors get.  Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans provide enough firepower to hang with Golden State.  If Golden State is at all off from 3, there’s a chance for an upset here.  We love NOLA to cover the +8.5 tonight, and actually pull off the upset, but we’ll take the Pelicans with the points.  NOLA wins 107 – 95.

NBA 11/28

Dallas vs. Toronto Over 209:

We’ve got two of the best scoring teams in the league meeting after a couple day’s rest.  Expect an up and down, competitive, game.  Toronto finds a way, at home 115 – 110.  Take the over.  Stay away from the line, as it could go either way.

Clippers -3 @ Houston:

It’s the perfect storm.  Clippers are finally finding their form.  Dwight Howard is still out for Houston.  Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will have their way inside.  Bet this game hard.  They don’t hand them to you any easier than this one!

Atlanta-2 vs. New Orleans Under 206:

Both teams play fast and Atlanta should get easy buckets inside.  We just don’t like New Orleans’ guard play.  They’re inconsistent from the perimeter and that’s the difference.  At home we like the combination of Milsap and Horford to dominate.  Jeff Teague will have his way with Jrue Holiday.  Hawks win 103 – 96.

Golden State -9 @ Charlotte:

Golden State is shooting out of their minds right now.  The Warriors have beaten their opponents by an AVERAGE of 16.5 points, over their last 6 games.  One of those was a 25 point blowout of Charlotte.  The Hornets are struggling to score.  Lance Stephenson has shown no signs of life this season.  This is a great line.  Warriors continue to dominate.

Orlando +5 @ Indiana:
This is another complete overreaction to the game that Indy gave San Antonio, the other night.  The Pacers still lack any team depth.  Even if David West is back, expect his first night out, in a year, to be a rusty one.  You could easily make the argument that Orlando is the more talented team.  Vucevic will continue to dominate Roy Hibbert on the glass.  The value lies in Orlando +5.  They very easily could win this game.

Denver (0) vs. Phoenix:

Phoenix is the more talented team, but it’s a case of revenge in this one.  With a couple days off, Denver remembers what Phoenix did to them, on the road, a couple nights ago.  In another high scoring game, Denver gets one back from Phoenix in a 111 – 104 victory.  Stay away from the over under in this one.  The lock is Denver for the victory.

Lakers -5.5 vs. T’Wolves/Under 215:

Let’s be honest, both teams suck.  The issue for the T’Wolves is youth and injuries.  Minnesota comes in with a banged up Ricky Rubio, no Kevin Martin, and no Nikola Pekovic.  Lakers roll at home in a big way.  Minnesota can’t make up all the points, without their best scorers.  Lakers win 115 – 93.

Sacramento +8.5 vs. Spurs/Over 193:

Two teams that play this fast, shoot this many threes, and have this much talent is just too hard not to be the over on.  The fact that Demarcus Cousins should eat, an old, Tim Duncan for lunch makes us like the +8.5 .  Spurs win a close one, but the Kings keep it close.  Final score Spurs 107 – 101.

NBA 11/26

Philly +8 @ Brooklyn:

The 76ers are starting play better basketball, despite their atrocious record.  The 6ers have added incentive, trying to get their first win of the season.  A team that’s this bad simply won’t get that on the road.  It’s a perfect storm.  The Nets usually play down to their competition, and they are a lowly 2 – 7 on the road, of which they’ve only won by double digits one time.  Odds-wise there’s value in the 6ers getting points.

Philly vs. Brooklyn Under 198.5:

The 76ers average a, lowly, 89 points per game.  It’s hard to picture Brooklyn being up for this game on the road.  Philly doesn’t snap their skid yet, but we’ll take Brooklyn in a close, ugly, game.  Final score Brooklyn 95 – Philly 90.

Dallas -13 vs. Knicks:

Dallas is a scoring machine, especially at home.  New York is a one man show in Carmelo Anthony.  The Knicks can’t protect the rim at all and Tyson Chandler well mans the paint to keep easy buckets away from the Knicks.  Expect a fast-paced up and down game.  Dallas is simply a better coached team, that knows it’s identity.  Dallas takes a 10 point half time lead and cruises to a 110 – 88 victory at home.

Milwaukee @ Minnesota Under 205:

This is our lock of the night.  Milwaukee is 12th in the league in points against.  They’ve got rim protectors in Larry Sanders & Giannias.  The T’Wolves like to play fast, but are sloppy with turnovers in transition.  The fact that Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic are out is everything in this matchup.  Add on that Milwaukee played at Detroit last night, too much points toward the under.  Take the under, it’s a lock.

Washington +7 @ Cleveland:

The Cavs are in disarray and it shows.  Defensively they’re one of the worst teams in the league.  A couple factors are pushing bettors toward Cleveland.  One is the embarrassing loss Washington put to them last week.  The other is the back to back nights and travel for Washington, coming from Atlanta.  This game is about competitiveness and respect though.  The last team in the world Washington is going to back down from is Cleveland.  The Wizards have huge advantages in John Wall and Bradley Beal at guard.  Their size inside can, at least hang with Cleveland.  The Cavs take this one, but not enough to cover.  Final score Cleveland 105 – Washington 100.

Orlando +9.5 vs. Golden State:

It’s the perfect spot for a letdown for the Warriors.  Golden State’s playing back to back nights against a poor team, after a nice win at Miami.  Orlando has made a living off putting up buckets and covering spreads this season.  Orlando comes out ready to play and that’s the difference in this one.  While Golden State has looked great early we’ll take Orlando to hang around in this one.  Golden State comes back from a terrible start, 103 – 99 Warriors.

Portland vs. Charlotte Over 193:

Portland brings their scoring with them everywhere they go.  Lillard, Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum provide some of the best shooting the league has to offer.  At home you’re getting value in a more prepared and better shooting Charlotte team.  This line is completely off.  Expect Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker to find a groove on their own home court.  Charlotte gets back and track in this one but we’ll take the over.  Final score Charlotte 105 – Portland 99.

Nuggets +8 @ Phoenix/Over 215:

Denver is starting to figure it out, winning 5 straight games.  The Suns slow down for no one and the Nuggets have learned they’re best only when they run.  We feel like last night’s game is getting overrated.  Rule of thumb, when Vegas offers these extremely high lines, they usually go over.  We’ll take the over and the hot handed nuggets to cover.  Nuggets lose a close one 112 – 109.

Kings +5 @ Houston/Over 193:

Dwight Howard’s absence is and will completely change Houston’s defense.  Without a rim protector DeMarcus Cousins continues his tear on the NBA.  The Kings get too many easy buckets inside.  The Rockets’ only chance is if James Harden and Ariza get red hot.  Either way, we love the Kings +5 and they most likely pull off the win.  At home the Rockets shoot well enough to hit the over.  Kings 111 – Rockets 103.

Teaser of the Night Memphis -2/Kings & Rockets Over 188:

Memphis has the best defense in the league.  They absolutely dominate on the boards.  The majority of their team has been together close 5 plus years.  They have a million times more chemistry than this horrid Lakers team.  The -2 is a lock and see above explanation for the Rockets’ over.