NCAAF 12/24

Teaser of the Day: CMU @ Western Kentucky Under 75.5/Fresno State & Rice Under 67

Both of these games are ridiculously hard to judge, let’s be honest.  Central Michigan’s offense is so inconsistent, it’s insane.  Conference U.S.A. believes in absolutely zero defense, whereas the MAC is a weaker version of the Big Ten ground n’ pound.  Our recommendation on two games this tough is push those bad boys up in a teaser and take the under.  Central Michigan’s only chance is to run the ball and control the clock.  They know this, they’ll try to shorten the game.

Rice loves to run the rock, even if it’s in a pistol, spread, formation.  Fresno will chuck the rock around with very little defense, so that is a worry.  What you have to like though is this huge layoff. Give teams this much time off and it has to have some sort of impact.  In two games this hard to call, we say play it safe.  When it doubt, tell Vegas to score the points.  We say make all 4 teams post 35 + points.  Doubtful!  Make this your Christmas Eve present of the day!

 

NBA 12/23

Celtics +2 @ Orlando:

Huge value in this game.  Orlando has struggled with Boston all season.  The Celtics have been playing better basketball, as of late, and the Dallas trade added more depth, without losing any real scoring prowess.  Orlando couldn’t even beat Philly at home, the other night.  That doesn’t inspire much confidence from our end.  Hard not to ride that Celtics train in this one.  We lean toward the over, but the Magic are too volatile to pick that.  Stick with the C’s; Celtics 105 – Magic 97.

Wizards -3 vs. Bulls:

Two extremely evenly matched teams.  Chicago probably has more depth, and we think this will be a dogfight for three quarters.  The issue becomes late in this contest. We just think the Bulls will run out of gas, after last night’s marathon in Chicago.  That game, combined with travel to Washington is an issue.  Bulls fade late and Wizards survive.  Wizards 103 – Bulls 94.

New Orleans -1 @ Indiana:

There’s a couple things not to love here.  First of all, New Orleans is 0 – 5 their last 5 games against the spread.  Secondly, in our opinions, the Pelicans are soft compared to Indiana.  There’s a level of toughness that Donald Sloan, David West, & company bring that the Pelicans lack.  The Pelicans especially lack this at guard.  Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans better suck it up if the Pelicans win this.  That being said, the best player on the floor (Anthony Davis) carries these Pelicans as he dominates Hibbert.  Expect David West to get his points for Indy.  The difference is A. Dav. & Ryan Anderson’s three’s on the wing.  Pelicans win 102 – 95.

Cleveland -13.5 vs. Minnesota:
The T’Wolves aren’t playing well at all.  Kevin Love has heard alot of the trash talk coming out of Minnesota about his leaving.  Expect K Love to show up in a big way.  Cleveland is hot right now.  If Dion Waiters and Lebron keep hitting like they have been, this is a total blowout.  Minnesota has no business being on the same court with Cleveland.  Cavs 109 – T’Wolves 87.

76ers +8 @ Heat:

There’s value in this pick.  Hold on, testing, testing, one two…..let me say that again…..there’s value in picking the 76ers on the road!  Wow!  We just said that!  But seriously, No Chris Bosh on the floor.  Chances are Dwyane Wade will play, but he could sit out in preparation for the Heat’s big Christmas Day game, which our sources say he will not miss.  Josh McRoberts is out, and Chris Andersen is dinged up.  The 6ers have looked better their past few outings.  MCC and Wroten are starting to find a groove.  Miami most likely wins, but it’s a great spot for them to overlook Philly in preparation for their matchup with Cleveland.  Heat 95 – 76ers 89.

Hawks -1.5 vs. Clippers:

Both teams coming off back to back games.  Atlanta goes home, and are on a red hot tear.  We truly believe the Hawks are a top 3 team in the East right now.  Atlanta is as efficient as any team in the NBA.  Clippers have a tough loss going against them, after losing to the Spurs.  The Clippers also have the travel, and shooting in an unfamiliar gym.  Atlanta is just another version of what the Spurs do (Buddenholzer), and the Clippers have never come close to figuring out that style of basketball.  Hawks win, relatively, easily.  Atlanta 103 – LAC 97.

Portland @ OKC Under 200:

We don’t very often bet against this with two teams that play this fast and shoot this well, but we’re going to in this case.  Chances are LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t step on the floor.  OKC always puts a premium on defense, especially against buckets at the rim.  Portland just played a track meet at Houston last night.  They have to be tired legs of some sort.  The other issue becomes Portland getting any inside points without L.A. or Robin Lopez on the floor.  A team with little bench depth, just got weaker inside.  Matthews, Batum, and Lillard are snipers, so it could be interesting how well they shoot from 3, but we’re banking on somewhat weak legs.  OKC wins 99 – Blazers 91.

Golden State -8.5 @ Lakers:

Loving the way this line is falling.  Yes it’s a back to back for Golden State, but they didn’t even break a sweat in bashing Sacramento, the other night.  The Splash brothers are a huge nightmare for Jeremy Lin and Company.  Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Iguodala bring too much athleticism for an inconsistent Lakers team.  Kobe Bryant’s legs are too old for this game, and it sounds like he’s questionable to play on this night.  We’ll take the Warriors, BIG!  GS 117 – Lakers 93.

Charlotte +6 @ Milwaukee:
Absolutely love this pick tonight!  Charlotte is red hot right now, and they got to rest the majority of their team in the 4th quarter, when they bashed Denver last night.  These teams are equally as talented, and Al Jefferson is a matchup nightmare for Milwaukee.  Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight should go back and forth in an entertaining game.  Tons and tons of value in the road team here.  Way too much is being made of the back to back travel game for Charlotte.  Hornets steal a win in Milwaukee; Hornet 102 – Bucks 95.

NCAAB 12/23

UNLV +13 vs. Arizona:
This is a tough task, considering how fantastic Arizona is on the defensive end.  The one thing we don’t like has been the, up and down, inconsistency on the offensive end for the Wildcats.  Arizona didn’t look anymore spectacular on the road against UTEP.  UNLV has a flat out net scorcher in Rashad Vaughan.  Playing in Vegas we expect Arizona to get the Rebels’ best shot.  Stat of the day, the road team in these contests is 0 – 4 – 1 in their last 5 Against The Spread.  Arizona wins 71 – 63 in Vegas.

George Mason +5.5 @ Wright State:
Two extremely even teams, and yes the home team is getting the points, simply because they’re at home.  The beauty of this one is we already have proof from George Mason that they’re ready to go for these types of contests.  The Patriots already put up hard fought contests against Old Dominion and UNI, in similar scenarios.  George Mason steals this one on the road 68 – 63 Patriots.

BYU -9.5 vs. UMASS:

BYU shoots the rock fantastically at home.  You’re looking at a UMASS team that couldn’t hang with Providence at MSG.  Now they’re going to travel out to Utah and put up a great performance?  One of the most boring places to play in the country?  The Cougars take this one big, as travel and the Holidays is proving too much for UMASS.  BYU 85 – UMASS 70.

Teaser of the Day: Dayton -1/Texas -5.5:

Texas is one of the deepest, most athletic teams, in the country.  Stanford can put up points, as can the Longhorns.  Too much Isaiah Taylor for the Cardinal.  Texas wins 78 – 68.  We like the over the most in that contest.  Dayton and Georgia Tech should be close, which makes us wonder if pushing the Yellowjackets up to 11 would’ve been smarter.  That being said, Dayton is stellar at home, and Jordan Sibert has been dominant this season.  We’re riding the Flyers at home for the win.

Texas vs. Stanford Over 126.5:

Both teams are putting up over 70 points, per game.  Stanford doesn’t have the size that Texas does, which means easy buckets for the Longhorns.  Points might be tough to come by for the Cardinal, but we know Chasson Randle will get his.  We think Texas is too much for Stanford.  Texas scores 80 in this one, which makes the over a safe play.  Texas 81 – Stanford 58.

Louisville vs. Cal State Northridge Under 138.5:

There’s alot to love about this pick.  First of all, no Montrezl Harrell on the floor.  The Cardinals best scorer, defender, and all around player will be out.  There’s an impact loss on the scoring end, we don’t care who they’re playing.  Secondly, Northridge struggles to score against most teams.  The Matadors only put up about 66 points a night, currently.  This is Louisville they’re playing.  Rick Pitino will have his boys pressing end to end.  If the length and athleticism won’t stop the easy buckets (which it will), the fatigue of running the floor for 40 straight minutes will.  The only small worry is if louisville decides to drop 90 points on the board.  Otherwise, we don’t expect CSN to even put up 60.  Louisville wins 85 – 48.

 

 

 

NCAAF 12/23

Northern Illinois +10 @ Marshall/Under 68:

Don’t get us wrong, Marshall is absolutely no joke.  The Thundering Herd can drop points like it’s nobody’s business, and Rakeem Cato can light up the skies with his big arm.  That being said, Marshall plays in a powder puff conference where the only team with a defense may have been Louisiana Tech.  We get two teams that have had 3 – 4 weeks off, there’s going to be a little lag in getting back into bowl swing.  Marshall showed some chinks in the armor their last two weeks of the season.  A bowl game against Northern Illinois is going to be a bit of a letdown, after being close to playing a power 4 conference champ.  We’re going with the team that’s got the great run game (Cameron Stingily is a tank). The Hurd have given up over 200 yards, on the ground, their last two games.  Throw in the fact, that we get the team with the deeper, more proven, defense and NIU is the play here.  The under may be the even safer play, as NIU knows they don’t want to get into a shootout here.  The Huskies offense is already up and down, without question they’ll be trying to establish their run game.  Take the under as the lock.

Navy +3 @ San Diego State/Over 53.5:

This will be a tight game, and there’s a couple scary aspects to it.  One, it’s basically a home game for the Aztecs.  Secondly, SDSU already bashed an option team like Navy this year in Air Force.  We can definitely see why Vegas is favoring them right now.  Daniel Pomphrey will be tough for Navy to stop in that he put up almost 1,800 yards rushing and 19 TD’s this year.  Luckily, Navy has had 3 weeks to prepare for him and the Midshipmen are not just one dimensional in their run game anymore.  We expect a close, fast paced game, with big plays.  Remember, SDSU’s QB has 10 picks on the season.  There will be a couple turnovers in this one.  We feel the over is the best play, but take Navy to pull this out close, as well.  Navy 31 – SDSU 27.