NFL 12/21

Vikings +7.5 @ Miami:

Traveling to Miami is never an easy place to play.  That being said, there’s value in the Vikings this week and we’ll tell you why.  One Miami is beat up after two bad losses to Baltimore and New England.  Two, the Vikings are showing grit in their defensive effort the past few weeks.  This young Vikings team is proving they can stop the pass and the run.  Over their past three games, the Vikes are giving up about 16 points, per game.  Minnesota has a chance to pull off the upset.  We think they lose a really close one, 24 – 21 Fish.

Teaser of the Day: Green Bay -5/Detroit -1.5:

The Bucs have some signs of life on offense, but their issue all season has been turnovers.  Tampa Bay has no consistency on defense, either.  Green Bay needs this one way more than Tampa.  We can’t see Green Bay not showing up with urgency.  Tease this down and it should be a lock.  Eddie Lacey will run rampant on the Bucs defense.

Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback, a team that doesn’t use Matt Forte enough, and a defense that may be one of the worst in NFL history.  There’s absolutely no reason on earth to bet on Marc Trestman’s Bears.  Oh yeah, and Detroit brings one of the best defenses in the league to the table.  Lions big, 24 – 7.

Detroit -8.5 vs. Chicago:

See above.

Teaser 2 of the Day: Pats -3.5/Colts & Cowboys Over 48

The Jets can stop the run, but they’re horrible against the pass.  This means a huge day for Rob Gronkowski.  Michael Vick, or Geno Smith, it doesn’t matter, they’re both turnover prone.  The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New England is fantastic in November and December, historically.  Enough said, Pats 41 – Jets 10.

The Colts and Cowboys offer two of the best offenses in the league.  Dallas’ defense is solid against the run, which the Colts could care less because they can’t run.  We can’t see a game where Andrew Luck doesn’t have at least 3 TD throws.  Dallas can establish their run and pass, even with DeMarco Murray hurt, against a bad Colts defense.  This is a fantastic teaser.  Final score Dallas 34 – Colts 31.

Colts @ Cowboys Over 55:

See above.

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Kansas City/Under 48:

Kansas City has one of the better run defenses in the league, but don’t expect the Steelers to abandon the run.  Pittsburgh’s finally getting healthy defensively, so they should be able to key in on Jamaal Charles.  Home Field advantage and the better passing game is the difference in this one.  KC has no playmakers on the edge, whereas the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton.  Pittsburgh 24 – 17.

Baltimore vs. Houston Under 42:

There’s so many questions on the offensive side of this one that it makes the spread scary.  The over under is absolutely fantastic then and we’ll tell you why.  First of all, Houston’s defense is clicking on all cylinders.  Baltimore will not have the ability to run against J.J. Watt’s front 7.  Joe Flacco will take a good half to get in a groove with Watt batting down his passes, as well.  On the other side, Baltimore’s defense will key in on a solid run game.  There’s no way Houston can put pressure on 3rd string QB Tom Savage to carry the load yet.  Ground and pound will be important, with two solid defenses leading the way.  We think Baltimore could cover, but play it safe and play the under.  Final score 24 – 17 Ravens.

Oakland +7.5 vs. Buffalo:

Defense travels well and both teams have a defense.  Oakland will really struggle with that pass rush of Buffalo.  This is more of a hunch bet, because Buffalo will definitely show up in their playoff hunt run.  Cross country travel from Buffalo to Oakland will no doubt be an impact.  Buffalo is coming off their most emotional win of the season.  It’s an impossible spot not to have a bit of a letdown.  Buffalo wins, but Oakland covers.  Buffalo 27 – Oakland 24.

Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seattle:

Seattle might be the most dangerous team in the league right now.  Arizona’s down to their third string QB in Ryan Lindley, whom we can’t stand by the way.  That being said, the NFC West is a dogfight and Bruce Arians has had his club ready to play all season.  The Cardinals pass rush is fantastic, especially at home.  They haven’t overextended themselves, offensively, all season so why would they now?  The Cards create a couple turnovers and show why they have the best defense in football.  Seattle will have to struggle and steal this late, on a late 4th quarter, Marshawn Lynch TD.  Seahawks 21 – Cardinals 17.

Monday Night Teaser: Cincinnati +10.5/Over 40

Monday night in Cincinnati, this game will be electric.  Both teams have solid defenses and the Bengals will be ready to play.  A couple differences separate Denver.  One, whose going to cover a healthy Julius and Demaryius Thomas?  Secondly, Denver is number 2 in the league against the run.  In the Bengals’ past 4 wins Jeremy Hill has been a huge part of their success.  The run game will be minimized greatly against Denver.  Thirdly, the Bengals are 24th in the NFL against the rush.  That being said, over the last month, Cincinnati is Top 10 in the league against the run.  There’s a lot of stats that point to both sides.  That leads us to think this will be a very tight game.  There’s no chance on earth we’re taking Andy Dalton over Peyton Manning.  You can’t logically bet that, but we do like Cincy’s defense (especially at home) over Denver’s.  The safe play in this game is giving Cincy 10.5 points and bumping the over.  Peyton Manning always finds a way to get his points, and we just feel like Cincy will show up, knowing that a win clinches a playoff birth.  A very tough call in this game.  We actually think Cincy will find a way to win 24 – 21, BUT being that Andy Dalton’s on the field, play this the safe way and push the over +10.5 points for the home team.

NBA 12/20

Teaser of the Day: Phoenix -1.5/Dallas -5.5

The Knicks could play the game of their life, but they still don’t have the firepower to hang with Goran Dragic, Bledsoe, Gerald Green, and company.  Dallas can score the lights out and there’s simply no way San Antonio isn’t absolutely exhausted after two triple over time games.  We don’t even know who will be on the court for the Spurs tonight.  That bench isn’t as deep without Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills on the roster.  Lock city teaser of the day.  You can bankroll this one.

Dallas -10.5 vs. San Antonio:
See above.

Pelicans -5 vs. Portland:

Portland’s the better team, but they’re coming off a 7 quarter marathon against the Spurs.  There’s no way there’s not some weak legs here.  Not to mention, the Blazers are down Batum and Robin Lopez.  An already short bench gets even shorter.  Expect Anthony Davis to own LaMarcus Aldridge, mainly due to fatigue.  New Orleans takes this one 101 – 93.  Don’t mess with the over/under, as both teams can really score and the Pelicans can really struggle at times.

Atlanta +5 @ Houston:

Sheer value all over this one.  Give the star power to Houston in Harden and Howard.  Give team depth and better ball movement to the Hawks.  Dwight Howard’s nothing more than a dunk machine inside.  He has little to no post moves.  Paul Milsap and Al Horford should not only get their 18 and 10 each, but they have the ability to limit Howard.  Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver provide too much for a bad Houston defense to defend.  Even if Atlanta doesn’t win, there’s sheer value in the Hawks.  We’re riding the Hawks train this season.  Mike Buddenholzer has made us believers, and there’s a lot of money to be made on them.

Utah @ Charlotte Over 192:
It’s a little dangerous when you’ve got two teams that have played so many games over the past few days.  At this point, though there’s vengeance for both teams to consider.  Al Jefferson will definitely want to show his old team they should have given him his payday, and the Jazz bigs will want to prove their worth.  In a hotly contested game, we think there’s too many easy buckets for both teams.  Charlotte wins 100 – 98.

Denver -3.5 vs. Indiana:
Absolutely love this pick.  Guard play wins in the NBA and the Nuggets have it in spades over the Pacers.  Back to back will mean absolutely nothing when you have more speed and team depth.  Not to mention the Pacers are coming into the mile high city.  We know Indiana’s bigs will have trouble adjusting to that altitude.  Big man play does not win these games in the NBA when the other team has superior guard play.  Nuggets win walking away 110 – 91.

Bucks +10.5/Under 211.5:
Absolutely love the under in this one.  The Clips not only come off a back to back, but they’re coming home from the mile high city where they were run ragged by the Nuggets.  Milwaukee is banged up and inconsistent on the offensive end already.  The under is a straight lock, especially with Milwaukee’s ability to block shots in the post.  With the fatigue set in we like the Bucks to cover the 10.5, as well.  How are you going to get up for Milwaukee after a tough loss in Denver?  Clips win, but in an ugly fashion.  Final score Clips 99 – Bucks 92.

 

NFL 12/20

Teaser of the Day Philly -1/San Fran & SD Under 48:

Washington’s back to RGIII again, which is actually a little bit scary as Desean Jackson will like to stick it to his old team.  What’s even scarier is the Skins’ defense has showed a little sign of life, at time.  All that being said, we can’t see Philly losing a huge playoff implication game that means absolutely nothing to the Skins.  Philly wins close 27 – 21.

San Fran can’t throw with Colin Kaepernick, right now.  San Diego has one of the top 15 defenses in the league.  The Chargers can’t run, nor can San Fran throw.  There’s too many questions, whereas the 9ers will stick to their ground and pound to try and win.  At the end of the day, it’s hard to see too many points being scored.  Final score 21 -17 Chargers.

Chargers vs. 49ers Under 41:
See Above.

NCAAB 12/20

Kentucky -14 vs. UCLA:

Take it from a UCLA fan, this is the absolute hardcore lock of the weekend.  UCLA scores points, against the Cal State Northridge’s of the world.  Kentucky is one of the longest, most athletic teams, in the country.  UCLA plays absolutely no defense and has no ability to impact Kentucky’s scorers.  At the end of the day, too many easy buckets for the Wildcats is the problem.  Kentucky wins 85 – 62.

SMU +1.5 @ Michigan:
Something is seriously wrong in Ann Arbor.  The Wolverines aren’t just in a funk, they aren’t even competitive right now.  You’re looking at a team that got blasted by 30 against a good Arizona team.  They can’t even beat Eastern Michigan at home.  SMU is riding a 5 game win streak, granted against lesser competition, but until Michigan can beat the New Jersey Institute of Technology, how can we logically pick them over a Larry Brown SMU squad?  SMU 63 – Michigan 54.

Louisville -12.5 vs. Western Kentucky:

Yeah, finals week means absolutely jack shit to a team like Louisville.  These guys are here to play basketball not study.  You’re looking at a Western Kentucky team that got blasted by Minnesota by 20 + points.  Louisville has had a week to prepare for this one.  It’s been sort of an every other game type thing for the Cardinals.  They didn’t show up last week, we love Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to show up with authority.  Louisville blasts Western Kentucky 75 – 50.

Ohio State +1 @ UNC:

Ohio State is proving early on that they’re a contender to win the Big Ten Title.  OSU has length, quickness, and athleticism all over their back court.  UNC is too much of a one man team right now.  This game should be back and forth with Carolina getting more from Tokoto and Meeks at home, than usual.  But we’ll take the team that plays more physical defense.  Ohio State win 70 – 68 on in Chapel Hill.

Syracuse +11.5 @ Nova:
There’s no logical reason to take the Orange with the way they’ve played this season.  Syracuse is one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the country and Villanova defends at an incredible clip.  Both teams have had a week to prepare for this one and Syracuse knows everything about how Villanova plays, as does Nova about the ‘Cuse.  We think the Syracuse zone turns this into one heck of an ugly basketball game.  Nova wins 56 – 49 in a struggle.

Indiana +3 @ Butler:

One win over North Carolina, a team that’s really inconsistent, and everybody’s back riding the Butler train.  The last loss to Tennessee was not impressive.  College Basketball games are won in the back court.  We get Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. , as the more athletic back court.  Butler at home is always tough, and we’re sure Kellen Dunham will shoot well, but there’s too much for the Bulldogs in this one.  Hoosiers win 75 – 63.

Notre Dame -2.5 vs. Purdue:
The Irish are one of the hottest shooting teams in the country, led by Jerian Grant.  Purdue has all the talent in the world, but they haven’t put it together to date this season.  We’ll go with the team that’s reached their potential versus the team that’s blown a few games they shouldn’t have.  Irish make less mistakes and that’s the difference.  Irish 85 – Purdue 78.

Xavier -5 vs. Auburn:
Xavier’s been playing together and playing well all season.  Now Bruce Pearl’s finally starting to get some of his boys back, but not in time to have the chemistry and pure shooting Xavier has, yet.  It’s hard to pick an Auburn team that can’t beat Tulsa or Coastal Carolina.  Xavier 74 – 60.

Northern Iowa +2 @ Iowa:

The one thing we know about Ben Jacobsen teams is they play the more disciplined brand of basketball.  UNI is off to one of the best starts in the country, whereas Iowa can’t shoot from the outside and they play inconsistent defense, at best.  We’ll take the smarter, more cohesive, team.  UNI pulls the road upset 74 – 70.

West Virginia -1.5 @ NC State:

The Mountaineers defense is too stifling for an up and down Wolfpack squad.  West Virginia is our surprise team of the year in the Big 12.  We think they’re on their way to a top 4 finish behind ISU, Kansas, & Texas.  West Virginia gets a big road win 68 – 62.

Oklahoma -6 vs. Washington:
Washington’s a solid team, at home!  Just like Okahoma’s a terrible team, on the road!  At home the Sooners are world beaters, and they’ve got the athleticism to prove it.  Time and place is everything in sports.  Boomers sooner at home, with a huge travel day for the Dawgs, we’ll take Buddy Hield and Boomer Sooner.  Okie wins 83 – 72.

BYU -3.5 vs. Stanford:
Stanford really hasn’t show anything all season, or given us any reason to believe they’ll go on the road and get a big win.  BYU is fantastic at home, as usual.  Their loss to Utah doesn’t hurt, as Utah is one of the best teams in the country this season.  BYU handles their business at home 85 – 77.

 

NCAAF 12/20

Air Force +1 vs. Western Michigan:

The Falcons have proven themselves all season in a fairly tough Mountain West Conference.  A win over a solid Colorado State squad capped a strong 9 – 3 season.  This Air Force team beat the likes of Navy, Boise State, and CSU this season.  They’ve also covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.  This game is being played in Boise, where Air Force is very familiar.  The travel and lack of experience against Air Force’s option will be an issue.  We’re riding the Falcons in this one 41 – 38.

Utah State -10 vs. UTEP:
Defense wins big games and Utah State has one of the best in the country.  Coming off a bad conference title loss to Boise, the Aggies will be ready for a hard fought bowl win.  Utah State has proven it all year with wins over Air Force, BYU, and a tough 3 point loss to a very good Colorado State squad.  UTEP had a mediocre season in a very mediocre Conference USA.  We just can’t back a team that got blasted 31 – 13 by Rice!  Utah State wins 35 – 10.

Nevada -1 vs. UL Lafayette:

Same song and dance, just new bowl game.  How can you back a UL Lafayett squad that beat the likes of South Alabama, Texas State, and UL Monroe?  Common opponent in this one, Boise State.  The Broncos blasted Lafayette by 25 points!  The Broncos beat the Wolfpack in a shootout 51 – 46.  Enough said, too much talent from the Mountain West.  Too much of a tested squad in Nevada.  Wolfpack 37 – Cajuns 17.  This is the absolute lock of the bowl season.

Utah -3 vs. Colorado State:

The Rams have proven themselves a tall task on the season and this one will be close.  Utah’s 3 wins over top 25 Pac 12 opponents says alot though.  Utah has the more imposing defense and pass rush.  One thing we know is the Utes can run the ball (1,300 + yards on the ground), and Colorado State gave up over 100 yards rushing against every single opponent it faced this season.  This one will be close.  Our only worry is CSU may be the more motivated team and take a crazy win, but Utah has won 10 of their last 11 bowl games.  We’ll take the Utes, barely, 31 – 26.

South Alabama -3 vs. Bowling Green/Over 53:

The one thing the last few weeks of the season proved is South Alabama can score the rock.  The 40 points they hung on Navy was no joke.  Bowling Green averaged close to 30 points, per game, on the season.  Despite their poor finish on the season, we think Bowling Green scores enough to push this over.  That being said, Bowling Green’s awful defense, and 3 game losing streak leave us uninspired.  South Alabama blasts Bowling Green 42 – 24.