NBA 12/19

Utah +4 @ Orlando/Under 192.5:

Expect a tight back and forth battle between two of the bottom feeders in the NBA.  That’s the perfect scenario to take the points, especially considering Utah is the more talented team.  They’ve got the most talented players on the floor in Burks and Hayward.  They matchup perfectly inside with Favors and Kanter against Vucevic.  The advantage to Orlando goes with how far Victor Oladipo can go with his point to assist ratio, which has been off the charts the past few weeks.  Either way, we’re getting the more talented team getting points.  We love the under, as well as both teams are in the bottom 10 in the NBA in points scored, while the Magic are one of the best in the league defensively.  Orlando wins 97 – 94.

Charlotte -4 vs. Philly:

Philly’s had 4 days off, that’s about all you can really say about Philly right now.  The sixers might be able to hang around if they receive a barrage from Tony Wroten and MCC, other than that they’re severely outmanned talent-wise.  Al Jefferson should have 28 – 12 easily in this one, and Kemba Walker should be able to assert his dominance.  It’s hard loving either of these teams, but how do you bet on a team that’s 2 – 22 right now?

Boston vs. Minnesota Over 211:
Love these big overs in these NBA games.  Rule of thumb is when that over/under is high Vegas is baiting you to take to the under, when the clear play is the over.  We’ve got a Celtics team toward the top of the NBA in scoring.  Rajon Rondo, while their distributor, wasn’t part of that scoring onslaught.  We should see easy buckets and strong play out of Jeff Green, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, and Jared Sullinger.  Minnesota is still horrible, but the fast play of the Celtics should get them some easy buckets in transition.  The C’s rank toward the bottom of the NBA in total team defense and why would that change all of a sudden? Boston 120 – Minnesota 100.

Detroit +8.5 vs. Toronto:

Every statistical reason, on paper will tell you to take the Raptors.  Toronto has one of the better scoring defenses in the NBA, and they also average one of the higher PPG totals.  That being said, we love Detroit’s inside presence in Drummond and Greg Monroe against a Raptors squad that’s no better inside.  The question is will Brandon Jennings and company show up to give Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross a push.  At the end of the day, 8.5 is too many points for a home team that has rim protectors like Detroit.  Remember, these scum bags don’t have to win, they just have to cover!  Toronto 98 – Detroit 93.

Washington -6 vs. Miami/Over 189:
Miami’s a whopping 2 – 7 at home this season.  Washington is a top 4 team in the west with scorers in Bradley Beal, John Wall, Marcin Gortat, etc.  We’ve got no Chris Bosh on the floor, and Miami’s guards (other than D-Wade) haven’t been able to throw it in the ocean lately.  To top it off, the Wiz bashed Miami by 20 + points the last time they played.  On what earth is their value in Miami?  Maybe Miami covers through a great D-Wade night, but there’s value in the Wiz and that’s where we’re riding.  Final score Wiz 102 – Miami 93.

Chicago +6.5 @ Memphis/under 191:

Memphis is playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, after two emotional wins over Golden State and San Antonio.  Everybody is making a big deal about Chicago playing last night when they clearly went through the motions against a bad Knicks team, looking ahead to Memphis.  Fatigue sets in after that last triple overtime win.  Too many points are being given to a deep Bulls team that can match up with Z Bo and Marc inside.  Remember Noah is back to help Pau now.  Bulls hang around in a tight game and steal it in the grindhouse.  Bulls 93 – Grizz 90.

Blazers +4.5 @ San Antonio:

Everyone’s riding the Blazers and so are we.  A triple overtime loss is never good, especially when you’re as old as the Spurs.  Too much firepower on the wings for Portland, and without Tony Parker whose going to stop Lillard.  There’s a high chance we don’t see any of San Antonio’s big 3 in this one.  Blazers win 101 – 87 against a beat up Spurs squad.

Clippers vs. Nuggets Over 214.5:

We get two teams that love to push the pace and have scorers all over the map.  The Nuggets are averaging 8 three’s, per game.  Both teams get tons of transition dunks through the Manimal, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.  Either team could pull away with a big spurt, making the spread hard to pick here.  The sheer pace and scoring ability of both teams lends this game toward the over though.  Clippers 109 – Nuggets 107.

Teaser of the Night: OKC -2/Bulls +11.5:
Despite playing last night and not having KD tonight, OKC is a different team with Westbrook, Ibaka, and Jackson on the floor.  Too much high flying athleticism for a bad Lakers squad.  OKC is hungry, they know they lost a tough one last night, which they would have won if KD were on the floor.  The team that has something to play for wins this one outright.  See above on Bulls pick.  We love a Bulls/Tom Thibedeau team getting 11.5 points, all day, everyday.  If you don’t like OKC give the Blazer +9.5, but definitely include the Bulls in your teaser.

NCAAB 12/19

St. John’s -6.5 vs. St. Mary’s:

St. John’s has a 3 headed monster in D’Angelo Harrison, Sir’Dominic Pointer, and Phil Greene IV.  You have to love teams that defend end to end, play physical basketball, and have superior guard play.  St. Mary’s really hasn’t proven much, other than an overtime win over a Creighton squad that’s really inconsistent.  Too much athleticism on the SJU side for a St. Mary’s team that can’t beat Northern Arizona.  St. Mary’s also has to travel to MSG, where the Red Storm are fantastic.  Too much travel and not enough athleticism for the Gaels.

Clemson @ South Carolina Over 126.5:

South Carolina has shown improvement all season.  Sindarius Thornwell has been hot in dropping 13 a night and 6 boards.  The GameCocks have averaged almost 80 ppg, over the last 3 games, including a win over Okie State.  We’ve believe Frank Martin’s team has found itself offensively, and would expect nothing less against a big, instate, rival.  This one’s too close to call from a spread perspective, because either could happen with the way Clemson likes to defend.  We’re riding with the home team though 71 – 62 in a nice over.  Don’t mess with the spread in this one.

Arizona -6.5 @ Utep/Over 132.5:
Vegas must know something we don’t in this one.  Tim Floyd teams are extremely well coached, and going on the road is never easy.  Vince Hunter will definitely get his points against the Wildcats.  The length and athelticism on the Arizona size can be matched by very few.  The easier play here is the points, because both teams like to run and gun in averaging well over 70 points per game.  We like the more talented team to cover the -6.5, but definitely take the over.

Teaser of the Night: Arizona -1.5/St. John’s -1.5

See above.

Tennessee Tech +14 @ Tennessee:
Another what we’d call “timing” game.  Tech’s averaging a lofty amount of points on the season.  That being said, Tennessee will play a defensive style that will take Tech out of their comfort zone.  Tech is talented enough to play with the likes of an Alabama within 2 points, on the road, they can do the same at Tennessee, who is very similar.  The big difference is this is Tech’s super bowl and they’ve had 4 days to prepare for it.  The Vols come back home on 1 day’s rest, after losing a hard fought, fast paced, game at NC State.  The Vols win, but on tired legs.  Vols 74 – Tech 63.

Colorado State -3.5 @ Denver:
Straight gut shot pick of the night.  Not tons of logic, or stats behind this one.  Colorado State looks like the class of the Mountain West right now.  They’re extremely well coached, and improving, under Larry Eustachy.  Just seems like too much for Denver.  At the end of the day, we’re going with the Rams for the win.  CSU takes this one 70 – 61.  Don’t bet your house on it, but we’ve got a gut feeling on it.