NFL 12/14

Teaser of the Day: Seattle -3/New England -.5

The Seahawks have the best defense in the league.  Over the past two seasons their win percentage, at home, is well over 90%.  San Francisco is free falling faster and faster.  The wheels really fall off this week after a terrible loss at Oakland.  If you’ve watched San Fran, at all, you know that Colin Kaepernick has zero confidence left.  The other half of this teaser is a lock.  We get a Bill Belichek squad, at home, against a divisional opponent (that beat them at Miami), AND the Patriots need every win to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Too much riding in New England’s favor.  The big difference here is the Pats have a ground game now, that they did not in week one.  The Fish won’t be able to tee off on Brady, like they did in their previous match up.  Pats’ win big 35 – 17.

Cincinnati (0) @ Cleveland:

This seems like suicide if you know how much Cleveland has owned Cincinnati the last couple years.  BUT, this season has been a crazy one where every time the Bengals have had their backs against the wall, they come up with the big win.  Inevitably, the blow the game that gives them cushion, as we saw last week against the Steelers.  Cincy has to have this one just as much as Cleveland.  We don’t believe Johnny Football is ready to make a big splash against this seasoned Bengals’ team yet.  Bengals win rather easily, 28 – 17.

Houston +7 @ Indy:

It’s obvious Indianapolis has one of the toughest offenses in the NFL.  What the Colts did to finish last week’s game against Cleveland was flat out impressive.  As great as Indy’s offense is, their defense is equally as poor.  Houston is finding it’s stride.  They know Indy’s system inside and out.  J.J. Watt leads one of the best defenses in the league into Indy.  Too much power running sets Indy back in this one.  Houston loses a tight one 24 – 21.

Steelers -2.5 @ Atlanta/Over 55:

Julio Jones is dinged up, if he plays at all.  Meaning, Roddy White is the lone weapon at wideout.  Pittsburgh has a top 5 run defense in the league.  As bad as their passing defense is, the Steelers have the better, deeper, team.  Pittsburgh finds a way to win this shootout.  Too much Leveon Bell for the Falcons.  Final score 34 – 27 Steelers.

Seattle -10 vs. San Francisco:

Big spreads are usually suicide in the NFL.  That being said, San Francisco has been awful at Seattle the last few years, when they were a Super Bowl contender.  The 9ers are one of the worst teams in the NFL in red zone efficiency.  Field goals do not get it done up in Seattle.  It’ll be a slobberknocker again.  Seattle might blow this thing open early, especially with how turnover prone Colin Kaepernick is right now.  Final score Seattle 34 – San Francisco 9.

Late Night Teaser: Dallas +10.5/Over 48

We’ll go with the team that controls the ground and pound.  Both teams like to establish it, but Dallas has been able to run on every defense in the NFL.  We don’t see that stopping against an Eagles team that is 18th in the league in rush defense and 26th in the league in pass defense.  With as many plays as the Eagles get off, this should be a track meet.  We just feel more comfortable putting this in a teaser.  Dallas wins on the road 28 – 21.

Oakland +10.5 @ Kansas City:

This is a really hard take knowing how dominant the Chiefs are at home.  This Chiefs team blasted the likes of New England by 30 at home.  That being said, the Raiders have found their passing game recently, while the Chiefs are reeling in their secondary.  Surprisingly, Oakland is 7th in the league against the pass.  If Oakland can find a way to, somewhat, minimize Jamaal Charles, this will be easy money.  Expect Andre Holmes to have another big day for the Raiders.  Stat of the day, Oakland has covered 10.5 points, 5 of 6 times on the road this season.  Chiefs win 28 – 20.

Jets -3 @ Tennessee:
The fact that New York is favored over anyone shows how bad Tennessee is. Now Bishop Sankey is truly horrible, but you have to like the fact that the Jets have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.  Tennessee has absolutely nothing going for them on defense.  The Jets have been much more competitive the last few weeks, so you have to like where they’re headed coming into this one.  One thing we know with Rex Ryan teams is they never stop playing.  Jets win on defense 27 – 9.

Saints -3 @ Bears:

I can’t believe we’re picking the Saints on the road.  You cannot find two more inconsistent teams than these two.  We’re sheerly going on gut feeling here.  The Bears are a one trick pony in Alshon Jeffery and they have absolutely nothing left to play for.  The Saints keep their season alive with a 34 – 20 victory.  Bears defense chokes another one away.

Jaguars +14 @ Ravens:

We’re going on sheer value here.  Fourteen points in the NFL is a gift.  The Jags are playing better and why would Baltimore bring their “A” game for a team like Jacksonville?  The Jags don’t win, but they manage to hang around.  Final score 27 – 17 Ravens.