NFL 12/6

Tampa Bay +10 @ Detroit:

Detroit’s coming off an emotional win on Thanksgiving.  They’ll definitely have the momentum playing at home, but we think Detroit’s got some chinks in the armor, and they know it from their loss to the Patriots.  The Bucs have been able to play with almost anyone.  If they can limit turnovers, this is a lock.  There’s value in the Bucs getting 10.

Teaser 1 of the Day: Baltimore +10/Saints -3:

Carolina is absolutely awful.  They have no run game whatsoever.  New Orleans finally got their big signature road win at Pittsburgh.  Coming back home to their dome knowing Atlanta will probably forgo their lead at Green Bay, is huge.  Baltimore has a chance to beat Miami this week.  Both teams are extremely evenly matched and in the middle of a tough playoff hunt.  Expect a barn-burner.  Getting 10 is a gift.

Indy vs. Cleveland Over 50/Indy -3:
Cleveland has an improved defense, but they haven’t faced anything like the Colts in their dome.  Indy will give up yards on the ground and through the air, in bunches.  Too much Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton here, but we don’t see how Cleveland doesn’t put up at least three touchdowns.  This is especially true now that Josh Gordon is back and healthy.  Indy wins 37 – 20.

St. Louis -3 @ Washington:

On what’s planet should Washington’s defense be favored to hang within 3 points of anyone?  The Skins are starting to play better, but they still give up big plays in bunches.  No other team is playing as efficiently as the Rams are either.  Rams win closer than expected 24 – 20.

Oakland +9.5 vs. San Francisco:

Over 72% of the betting public is riding the 9ers now.  Being so, it’s perfect timing to jump back on the Raiders.  San Fran has been horrible on the road this season.  The San Francisco offense has been sputtering and worst of all Colin Kaepernick is turning the ball over.  San Fran’s run gets limited in this one and it ends up closer than expected.  49ers win 22 – 17.

Seattle +0 @ Philly:

Seattle has the lockdown defense and the one thing we know is Philly is soft up front defensively.  Expect heavy dosages of Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  When Philly has faced defenses like this they haven’t been able to assert their pace.  Physical secondary coverage slows down speed burners.  The Seahawks lock down Philly and cruise to a 28 – 13 victory.

Teaser 2 of the Day:  Seattle +7/Denver -3:

See above on Seattle.  Buffalo’s defense is great.  They’ve kept them competitive with any team in the league.  A couple things stand out though.  This bad boy is in Mile High.  Traveling from Buffalo to Mile High is no easy task.  It’s still Kyle Orton against Peyton Manning.  We can’t honestly take Kyle Orton, on the road, in that matchup.  Teased down to 3, there’s alot of value in this pick.

Packers -12.5 vs. Falcons:
Matt Ryan is terrible outside of his dome.  The Packers are on an incredible streak right now.  Atlanta shows no signs of life on defense.  Eddie Lacey should be easily established in the run game.  It’s hard to ever love these big spreads, but at the end of the day, it’s Aaron Rodgers, at home, on MNF, at Matt Ryan.  Case closed.

Teaser 3 of the Day: Packers -5.5/New England & San Diego Over 44.5

 

NCAAF 12/6

Wisconsin -4 vs. OSU:
One thing Michigan & Indiana proved over the last two weeks, is that Ohio State is susceptible to the run.  Then it’s not the time to face one of the biggest offensive line’s in the country.  Melvin Gordon will be more than OSU can handle.  The loss of J.T. Barrett finally breaks the Buckeyes’ backs.  Badgers win this one 27 – 17.

Oklahoma State +21 @ Oklahoma:

We don’t love the Cowboys by any means, either, but this isn’t Kansas either.  It’s a rivalry game, where Okie State needs a win to become bowl eligible.  Oklahoma’s incentive to play hard is minimal, at best.  Let’s not forget Okie is down to backup QB Cody Thomas.  Semaje Perine is an awesome running back, but the Cowboys are getting way too many points here.  Okie State pulls the upset, but take the points.  Final score 31 – 28 Cowboys.

TCU vs. Iowa State Under 69:

This is the lock of the day.  Yes TCU will run the score up and yes Iowa State sucks.  But, one TCU has one of the best defenses in the country.  Iowa State will give away at least three turnovers, at a minimum.  Iowa State is completely reliant on establishing a run game to be efficient on offense.  There’s too much running from the Clones’ in this one to push the over.  TCU blasts this one 55 – 7, but the game doesn’t go over.

Temple -3 @ Tulane:

Temple needs this game to become bowl eligible.  The Owls have shown they can play with quality programs all year.  Tulane has nothing to play for and their team is flat out garbage.  The Owls win 27 – 10 to go to the we do not care bowl!

Kansas State +7.5 @ Baylor:
Kansas State is never amazing on the road, but Bill Snyder will get his team up for any game.  Baylor hasn’t faced a pass rush like this, this year.  We think the Bears will have no trouble establishing the run, but this should be a back and forth game.  Kansas State covers in a close loss.  34 – 31 Bears win.

Houston +7.5 @ Cincy:

Houston is getting 7.5 and they have the better defense.  We’ll take that all day.  Houston has played BYU and UCF tough this year.  We like the Cougars, facing an overinflated Cincy team to win this outright, but 7.5 is an absolute gift.  Cougars win this bad boy 31 -24.

Alabama -14.5 vs. Mizzou:

Mizzou has faced nothing like this all season.  Now Missouri’s defense is better than expected, but the floodgates will give way late.  Expect Nick Saban to have his defense COMPLETELY prepared for a very plain jane spread attack in Missouri.  These aren’t the athletes that Bama’ saw last week against Auburn.  A 21 – 7 game, at half, finishes as a 37 – 10 Bama win.  Matty Mauk will be lying on his back quite a bit in this one.

Georgia Tech +4 vs. FSU:

FSU has been a goldmine to bet against this season.  Why would we believe the ‘Noles wouldn’t show up flat for the 12th straight time?  That’s a bad recipe against a high scoring Georgia Tech team.  The Yellowjackets also lead the country in 4th quarter points this season.  Hence, we know they can match FSU blow for blow late.  Florida State steals this one on a last second drive.  Final score FSU 38 – Tech 35.  Yellowjackets cover.

La Tech +9.5 @ Marshall:

It’s hard to believe Marshall isn’t deflated after last week’s heartbreaking loss.  The Herd’s season is now off the line whereas Tech is trying to put everything together for, not only an upset win, but conference championship.  Marshall will rally the troops for a tough game, but we like Tech, because they have the better defense.  La Tech takes this late, 35 -32.

NBA 12/5

OKC -13 @ Philly:

It’s a bad time for Philadelphia to be taking on Oklahoma City.  This is a Philly team that got their first win scoring 85 points against the T’Wolves!  Oklahoma City has a sense of urgency to win now and win emphatically.  If they want to get back into the Western Conference Playoff hunt they have to do so right now.  Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Jackson, and Lamb provide too much firepower.  OKC blasts Philly 120 -95.

Denver +5 @ Washington:

This isn’t the easiest game in the world to pick, but we think the line is stretched just far enough to favor the Nuggets.  The Wizards have better inside play, but the Nuggets have been finding efficiency in pushing the pace.  Ty Lawson and company go on the road and take this one 101 – 97.

Knicks +5 @ Charlotte:

This line is completely inflated right now.  The Knicks have to travel off a deflating loss to the Cavs yes, but put these two rosters on paper.  Outside of Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, the Knicks own the advantage at every other single position, including depth.  Knicks win a close one on the road 99 – 96.

Boston -3 vs. Lakers:

The Lakers haven’t shown us any reason to pick them, hardly all year.  Now they’re going to travel across the country and beat one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA?  We don’t think so.  Too much Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger.  We’ll take the C’s 112 – 103.

Utah vs. Orlando Over 192:

We hate the line in this one, but love the over under.  Both teams have consistent scoring.  Orlando likes to push the pace and get transition buckets, whereas Gordon Hayward, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors should have no trouble getting their points.  Final score Utah 105 – Orlando 94.  The over is a great play on the night.

San Antonio (o) vs. Memphis:

The Spurs have consistently been Memphis’ kryptonite over the years.  Tim Duncan does a fantastic job of taking Zach Randolph out of these games.  San Antonio is too efficient on offense, with their ball movement, for Memphis’ grind it out defense to matter.  If the Spurs hit their threes they’ll lock this in easy.  Spurs win by 10, 100 – 90.

Milwaukee vs. Miami Under 195:The Bucks have been trying to establish or more “grind it out” style of defensive play.  That will show itself more at home.  Miami may be without Luol Deng in this one.  The Heat are one of the more inconsistent shooting teams in the league this season, especially on the road. The under is the safe play here.  We expect a sloppy game.

Phoenix @ Dallas Over 215:

Two of the fastest, most efficient scoring teams, in the NBA taking the floor.  We get Dirk Nowitzki back.  We get both teams coming in rested.  We get both teams fighting for playoff supremacy.  This will be a hotly contested game.  We think Dallas pulls it out to the tune of 120 – 112.

Brooklyn +1.5 vs. Atlanta:

On paper the Hawks are slightly better, but the wrong team is getting points here.  The Hawks consistently lay eggs on the road.  Brooklyn is finally starting to gel.  A big win over the defending champs propels Brooklyn to another nice win at home.  In a back and forth contest, Brooklyn finds a way 102 – 93.

NCAAB 12/5

Oklahoma -13 vs. Mizzou:

Oklahoma is coming off a tough loss to a solid Wisconsin team.  Oklahoma’s season has been all over the map, but nothing cures those woes more than coming home.  If you’ve followed the Big 12 recently, you’ll notice how much better the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas play at home.  Over the past 5 years these teams have been almost identical, as far as consistent play.  Oklahoma will look like world beaters at home against anyone, other than Kansas in the Big 12.  Mizzou is extremely young and inexperienced.  Their best player is a freshman guard.  They barely beat Southeast Missouri State at home!  It’s bad timing to be headed to a top 25 level place, like Norman Oklahoma, to play.  Oklahoma wins 87 – 63.

Kansas -7 vs. Florida:

The Jayhawks have one of the deepest teams in the country, which is a testament to how truly great Kentucky is this year!  Don’t be fooled, Florida has talent.  Michael Frazier, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jon Horford provide some seasoned scoring, but none of that has showed up this year.  Florida’s biggest problem is they have no leadership at guard this season.  Though they still defend well, a lack of consistent scoring, and lack of confidence catches up to the gators.  Kansas has a stellar top 5 in Perry Ellis, Cliff Alexander, Wayne Seldon, etc.  The difference in this is playing at Allen Fieldhouse.  Gators hang within 8 in the first half, but Kansas pulls away for a 75 – 60 win late.

Texas @ Kentucky Over 121.5/Kentucky -13:
Losing your starting point guard, and best player before playing the best team in College Basketball, over the past 10 years, is not an ideal scenario.  Now throw in the fact that you have to go to Rupp Arena and try to pull out a win.  Kentucky will asert itself early and often.  Texas will have issues scoring against the length of Kentucky, but this game will get out of hand from the start.  Kentucky will EASILY cover the 13, and we think Texas can score over 50 points, to get over the 121.5.  Kentucky sticks it to the Longhorns 82 – 53.

NCAAF 12/5

Northern Illinois -5 vs. Bowling Green:

Both teams are the cream of the crop in the MAC.  Bowling Green is one of the most high flying offenses in the country.  At the same time, they have huge defensive issues on the front line, and they have been known to be turnover prone.  NIU has an upper echelon defense that can, at the very least, limit Bowling Green to Field Goals.  There’s too much ground and pound physicality on the NIU side for Bowling Green to handle.  NIU wins 34 – 20.

Arizona +14.5 @ Oregon:
This game is being completely blown out of proportion, as a “revenge” game.  The Ducks have no doubt fixed their offensive line issues of this previous meeting.  That being said, Arizona has proven they have the ability to play fast, and stop the pass.  The Wildcats have a pass rushing machine in Scoobie Wright.  They also are 16th in the country in total pass defense.  Oregon is Oregon, we know how great they can be, but this line has jumped out of control.  Strike while they iron is hot and jump on the Wildcats.