NCAAF 12/26

UNC -3 vs. Rutgers:

Neither team provides tons of comfort to pick.  The one thing we know about Rutgers is they’re inconsistent as hell!  One week you’ll get 40 points out of them, the next 17.  We also know their defense is probably even more lackluster, than their offense.  The only thing we know about UNC is, though their defense lacks (big time), their offense makes up for every bit of their terrible defense.  We expect the Tar Heels to make amends for their terrible outing against NC State, and finish on a high note.  Tar Heels win big 49 – 21.

UCF -2.5 vs. N.C. State:

You have to absolutely love this matchup, from a picker’s standpoint.  The Wolfpack have proven to be incredibly inconsistent on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.  UCF has a defense that is 8th in the country in points allowed.  The Knights do a fantastic job of stopping the run, and their offense has picked it up, greatly in the second half of the season.  Sheer value in UCF this year, as the ACC was awful, and we get the team with the better defense.  When in doubt, ride the team with the better defense.  UCF 24 – N.C. State 13.

Louisiana Tech -6 vs. Illinois:

Complete toss up game here.  Normally we’d say ride the team with the points, but with how pathetic Illinois’ defense has been (all season) we just can’t pick the Illini.  If the MAC has shown us anything, it’s pathetic, it’s not a good sign for the Big Ten.  If you look at Big Ten teams this year, Northwestern, Iowa, Illinois, etc. they all struggled against MAC opponents. We knew the Big Ten was bad, and it will show itself (in spades) in the bowl season.  Louisiana Tech’s superior defense and desire to win this game will prove too much.  Skip Holtz’s team wins 37 – 26.

NBA 12/25

Spurs -5 vs. Thunder:

The Thunder struggle, mightily, to beat the Spurs when at full strength.  It usually takes mammoth performances from Westbrook and Durant to knock off San Antonio.  Granted, no Kawhi Leonard is a huge deal for the Spurs.  That being said, the Spurs have the deeper, more team oriented, roster.  Five points may seem like alot, but the value is in a more cohesive San Antonio team, at home.  The Thunder just aren’t the Thunder, without KD.

Washington vs. New York Over 194:

Everyone will jump on Washington in this one, which is a complete trap.  If you’ve followed the Knicks this season you know they suck, at winning games, but they’ve been pretty stellar at covering spreads.  Remember, this Carmelo-less squad covered just a few days ago, in Chicago!  It isn’t out of the realm of possibility for the Knicks to come ready to play today and cover, especially if Melo is in the lineup.  Christmas day always brings fantastic effort from both squads.  The Knicks have no answer for John Wall, and as of late, Tim Hardaway Jr. has been on fire.  The Knicks should get some timely shooting from Jose Calderon, as well.  Play the over, as you should get max effort from both teams today.

Clippers -1 vs. Golden State/Over 218:

A shootout in the Golden State, on Christmas Day, now that’s our idea of a Merry Christmas!  This is can’t miss basketball for any NBA fan.  Golden State is shooting the rock red hot right now.  The Warriors have covered the spread in 5 of these teams’ last 6 meetings.  Even so, we’re riding with the Clippers.  Golden State showed some fatigue, and chinks in the armor, in their last loss to the Lakers.  The Clippers need this one a little more, and we feel like the Warriors are due for their first losing streak of the season.  The under has a decent chance here, but with both teams amp’d up for a Christmas day game, we’ll take some hot shooting and high flying antics to cover.  Clippers 112 – Warriors 103.

Lakers +10.5 @ Chicago/Under 207.5:

This is a bit dangerous with how pathetic L.A.’s defense is and how hot Chicago’s shooting can be.  The reason we like the Lakers is they showed signs of life in a recent win over Golden State, we get Kobe Bryant on Christmas day, and as pumped as the Bulls will be they know they’re playing an inferior team.  It’s not always easy to show up against lesser competition, no matter what the day.  Chicago likes to defend, along with having a lockdown defense.  The over/under just seems too high here.  Final score, Bulls 104 – Lakers 101.

Cleveland -5.5 @ Miami:

Alot of the “wise guys” are riding the Heat here, especially coming off a disappointing loss to Philly.  There’s no doubt the Heat will throw the kitchen sink at Cleveland, but without Chris Bosh Miami will need alot more than just Dwyane Wade.  Too much K – Love, Lebron, and Kyrie.  Dion Waiters has been on fire lately.  Even a return trip to Miami can’t overcome the talent on the floor.  Cleveland wins running away 105 – 93.  Too little scoring on the Heat, to hang around in this one.

NCAAF 12/24

Teaser of the Day: CMU @ Western Kentucky Under 75.5/Fresno State & Rice Under 67

Both of these games are ridiculously hard to judge, let’s be honest.  Central Michigan’s offense is so inconsistent, it’s insane.  Conference U.S.A. believes in absolutely zero defense, whereas the MAC is a weaker version of the Big Ten ground n’ pound.  Our recommendation on two games this tough is push those bad boys up in a teaser and take the under.  Central Michigan’s only chance is to run the ball and control the clock.  They know this, they’ll try to shorten the game.

Rice loves to run the rock, even if it’s in a pistol, spread, formation.  Fresno will chuck the rock around with very little defense, so that is a worry.  What you have to like though is this huge layoff. Give teams this much time off and it has to have some sort of impact.  In two games this hard to call, we say play it safe.  When it doubt, tell Vegas to score the points.  We say make all 4 teams post 35 + points.  Doubtful!  Make this your Christmas Eve present of the day!

 

NBA 12/23

Celtics +2 @ Orlando:

Huge value in this game.  Orlando has struggled with Boston all season.  The Celtics have been playing better basketball, as of late, and the Dallas trade added more depth, without losing any real scoring prowess.  Orlando couldn’t even beat Philly at home, the other night.  That doesn’t inspire much confidence from our end.  Hard not to ride that Celtics train in this one.  We lean toward the over, but the Magic are too volatile to pick that.  Stick with the C’s; Celtics 105 – Magic 97.

Wizards -3 vs. Bulls:

Two extremely evenly matched teams.  Chicago probably has more depth, and we think this will be a dogfight for three quarters.  The issue becomes late in this contest. We just think the Bulls will run out of gas, after last night’s marathon in Chicago.  That game, combined with travel to Washington is an issue.  Bulls fade late and Wizards survive.  Wizards 103 – Bulls 94.

New Orleans -1 @ Indiana:

There’s a couple things not to love here.  First of all, New Orleans is 0 – 5 their last 5 games against the spread.  Secondly, in our opinions, the Pelicans are soft compared to Indiana.  There’s a level of toughness that Donald Sloan, David West, & company bring that the Pelicans lack.  The Pelicans especially lack this at guard.  Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans better suck it up if the Pelicans win this.  That being said, the best player on the floor (Anthony Davis) carries these Pelicans as he dominates Hibbert.  Expect David West to get his points for Indy.  The difference is A. Dav. & Ryan Anderson’s three’s on the wing.  Pelicans win 102 – 95.

Cleveland -13.5 vs. Minnesota:
The T’Wolves aren’t playing well at all.  Kevin Love has heard alot of the trash talk coming out of Minnesota about his leaving.  Expect K Love to show up in a big way.  Cleveland is hot right now.  If Dion Waiters and Lebron keep hitting like they have been, this is a total blowout.  Minnesota has no business being on the same court with Cleveland.  Cavs 109 – T’Wolves 87.

76ers +8 @ Heat:

There’s value in this pick.  Hold on, testing, testing, one two…..let me say that again…..there’s value in picking the 76ers on the road!  Wow!  We just said that!  But seriously, No Chris Bosh on the floor.  Chances are Dwyane Wade will play, but he could sit out in preparation for the Heat’s big Christmas Day game, which our sources say he will not miss.  Josh McRoberts is out, and Chris Andersen is dinged up.  The 6ers have looked better their past few outings.  MCC and Wroten are starting to find a groove.  Miami most likely wins, but it’s a great spot for them to overlook Philly in preparation for their matchup with Cleveland.  Heat 95 – 76ers 89.

Hawks -1.5 vs. Clippers:

Both teams coming off back to back games.  Atlanta goes home, and are on a red hot tear.  We truly believe the Hawks are a top 3 team in the East right now.  Atlanta is as efficient as any team in the NBA.  Clippers have a tough loss going against them, after losing to the Spurs.  The Clippers also have the travel, and shooting in an unfamiliar gym.  Atlanta is just another version of what the Spurs do (Buddenholzer), and the Clippers have never come close to figuring out that style of basketball.  Hawks win, relatively, easily.  Atlanta 103 – LAC 97.

Portland @ OKC Under 200:

We don’t very often bet against this with two teams that play this fast and shoot this well, but we’re going to in this case.  Chances are LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t step on the floor.  OKC always puts a premium on defense, especially against buckets at the rim.  Portland just played a track meet at Houston last night.  They have to be tired legs of some sort.  The other issue becomes Portland getting any inside points without L.A. or Robin Lopez on the floor.  A team with little bench depth, just got weaker inside.  Matthews, Batum, and Lillard are snipers, so it could be interesting how well they shoot from 3, but we’re banking on somewhat weak legs.  OKC wins 99 – Blazers 91.

Golden State -8.5 @ Lakers:

Loving the way this line is falling.  Yes it’s a back to back for Golden State, but they didn’t even break a sweat in bashing Sacramento, the other night.  The Splash brothers are a huge nightmare for Jeremy Lin and Company.  Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, and Iguodala bring too much athleticism for an inconsistent Lakers team.  Kobe Bryant’s legs are too old for this game, and it sounds like he’s questionable to play on this night.  We’ll take the Warriors, BIG!  GS 117 – Lakers 93.

Charlotte +6 @ Milwaukee:
Absolutely love this pick tonight!  Charlotte is red hot right now, and they got to rest the majority of their team in the 4th quarter, when they bashed Denver last night.  These teams are equally as talented, and Al Jefferson is a matchup nightmare for Milwaukee.  Kemba Walker and Brandon Knight should go back and forth in an entertaining game.  Tons and tons of value in the road team here.  Way too much is being made of the back to back travel game for Charlotte.  Hornets steal a win in Milwaukee; Hornet 102 – Bucks 95.

NCAAB 12/23

UNLV +13 vs. Arizona:
This is a tough task, considering how fantastic Arizona is on the defensive end.  The one thing we don’t like has been the, up and down, inconsistency on the offensive end for the Wildcats.  Arizona didn’t look anymore spectacular on the road against UTEP.  UNLV has a flat out net scorcher in Rashad Vaughan.  Playing in Vegas we expect Arizona to get the Rebels’ best shot.  Stat of the day, the road team in these contests is 0 – 4 – 1 in their last 5 Against The Spread.  Arizona wins 71 – 63 in Vegas.

George Mason +5.5 @ Wright State:
Two extremely even teams, and yes the home team is getting the points, simply because they’re at home.  The beauty of this one is we already have proof from George Mason that they’re ready to go for these types of contests.  The Patriots already put up hard fought contests against Old Dominion and UNI, in similar scenarios.  George Mason steals this one on the road 68 – 63 Patriots.

BYU -9.5 vs. UMASS:

BYU shoots the rock fantastically at home.  You’re looking at a UMASS team that couldn’t hang with Providence at MSG.  Now they’re going to travel out to Utah and put up a great performance?  One of the most boring places to play in the country?  The Cougars take this one big, as travel and the Holidays is proving too much for UMASS.  BYU 85 – UMASS 70.

Teaser of the Day: Dayton -1/Texas -5.5:

Texas is one of the deepest, most athletic teams, in the country.  Stanford can put up points, as can the Longhorns.  Too much Isaiah Taylor for the Cardinal.  Texas wins 78 – 68.  We like the over the most in that contest.  Dayton and Georgia Tech should be close, which makes us wonder if pushing the Yellowjackets up to 11 would’ve been smarter.  That being said, Dayton is stellar at home, and Jordan Sibert has been dominant this season.  We’re riding the Flyers at home for the win.

Texas vs. Stanford Over 126.5:

Both teams are putting up over 70 points, per game.  Stanford doesn’t have the size that Texas does, which means easy buckets for the Longhorns.  Points might be tough to come by for the Cardinal, but we know Chasson Randle will get his.  We think Texas is too much for Stanford.  Texas scores 80 in this one, which makes the over a safe play.  Texas 81 – Stanford 58.

Louisville vs. Cal State Northridge Under 138.5:

There’s alot to love about this pick.  First of all, no Montrezl Harrell on the floor.  The Cardinals best scorer, defender, and all around player will be out.  There’s an impact loss on the scoring end, we don’t care who they’re playing.  Secondly, Northridge struggles to score against most teams.  The Matadors only put up about 66 points a night, currently.  This is Louisville they’re playing.  Rick Pitino will have his boys pressing end to end.  If the length and athleticism won’t stop the easy buckets (which it will), the fatigue of running the floor for 40 straight minutes will.  The only small worry is if louisville decides to drop 90 points on the board.  Otherwise, we don’t expect CSN to even put up 60.  Louisville wins 85 – 48.

 

 

 

NCAAF 12/23

Northern Illinois +10 @ Marshall/Under 68:

Don’t get us wrong, Marshall is absolutely no joke.  The Thundering Herd can drop points like it’s nobody’s business, and Rakeem Cato can light up the skies with his big arm.  That being said, Marshall plays in a powder puff conference where the only team with a defense may have been Louisiana Tech.  We get two teams that have had 3 – 4 weeks off, there’s going to be a little lag in getting back into bowl swing.  Marshall showed some chinks in the armor their last two weeks of the season.  A bowl game against Northern Illinois is going to be a bit of a letdown, after being close to playing a power 4 conference champ.  We’re going with the team that’s got the great run game (Cameron Stingily is a tank). The Hurd have given up over 200 yards, on the ground, their last two games.  Throw in the fact, that we get the team with the deeper, more proven, defense and NIU is the play here.  The under may be the even safer play, as NIU knows they don’t want to get into a shootout here.  The Huskies offense is already up and down, without question they’ll be trying to establish their run game.  Take the under as the lock.

Navy +3 @ San Diego State/Over 53.5:

This will be a tight game, and there’s a couple scary aspects to it.  One, it’s basically a home game for the Aztecs.  Secondly, SDSU already bashed an option team like Navy this year in Air Force.  We can definitely see why Vegas is favoring them right now.  Daniel Pomphrey will be tough for Navy to stop in that he put up almost 1,800 yards rushing and 19 TD’s this year.  Luckily, Navy has had 3 weeks to prepare for him and the Midshipmen are not just one dimensional in their run game anymore.  We expect a close, fast paced game, with big plays.  Remember, SDSU’s QB has 10 picks on the season.  There will be a couple turnovers in this one.  We feel the over is the best play, but take Navy to pull this out close, as well.  Navy 31 – SDSU 27.

NBA 12/22

Charlotte -2 vs. Denver:
Fantastic time to jump back on the Charlotte bandwagon.  Denver is nothing away from their home arena.  Add on to that they just lost Danillo Galinari again.  They’re still short Randy Foye, Javale McGee, and probably Darrell Arthur.  The Hornets are starting to find their groove after winning a couple, recently.  Kemba Walker is shooting over 50% his past two outings, and Al Jefferson has returned to the A. Jeff of old.  Two teams headed opposite ways, and one plays poorly on the road.  Charlotte wins 101 – 94.

Utah +8.5 @ Memphis/Under 195:

Huge value pick here.  Granted, Utah has lost 5 straight at Memphis, but they can lose……we just need it close.  A few great signs here.  The Jazz have size to match Memphis’ (Favors and Kanter).  The Jazz have a wing scorer to take pressure off their bigs (Gordon Heyward).  Memphis is coming off a back to back night, where they just got drubbed by Cleveland.  Their could definitely be sluggish legs after that.  The best part is we have no Zach Randolph on the floor.  Take away, arguably, Memphis’ best player and that has to hurt some.  Memphis is more talented, but Jazz keep it close in a 97 – 91 Grizzlies win.

Portland @ Houston Over 198.5:

We lean toward Portland in this one, but can’t pick them because of the injury to Robin Lopez and uncertainty on Nic Batum.  That being said, there’s value in the over.  Both teams play fast and shoot the lights out.  Dwight Howard can’t guard L.A. when he pulls him off the block, and vice versa, so easy big man points.  Houston picks up some wing depth in Alexey Shved and Corey Brewer.  If Portland shows up we’re looking at a 103 – 100, type game.  If Houston shows up, and Brewer brings a refreshed bench, we’re looking at blowout city, 118 – 90, type game.  Either way, we think this line is set too low.  Lock in this over, it’s a solid play.

Toronto @ Chicago Over 201:

This line keeps going up, and for good reason.  This will be a hotly contested matchup, between two very talented teams.  The Bulls average well over 100 points, per contest, and the Raptors are right around the same area.  Both teams are trying to establish Eastern Conference supremacy, which makes it really tough to pick the spread.  The spread was set perfectly in this one, because this will be a close game and a late 3 could push the line either way.  That’s why the over is fantastic.  We’ll get high quality inside looks and stellar 3 point shooting from Butler, Dunleavy, Lowry, Ross, etc.  We’ve got the Bulls 104 – 101.

Hawks @ Mavs Over 209:

This line is so tough, because Jeff Teague is a gametime call.  The speed and outside shooting lends itself toward the over though.  Both teams want to run and gun, and nobody has been able to stop the Mavs at home.  The Hawks getting points has been stellar all season, that being said, Dallas is phenomenal at home.  If we knew Teague was ready to go we’d rock the +5, but we’ll play it safe and go over.  Dallas 114 – Hawks 107.

Spurs +1 vs. Clippers:

Very tough game to call here, but San Antonio rested all their stars for a reason, and they still almost got Dallas the other night.  This will be a battle, but San Antonio needs this game more, after some really tough losses recently.  Sometimes urgency is the name of the game in sports, and there’s some urgency for the Spurs right now.  Clippers won’t back down, but we’ll take the Spurs in this dog fight 102 – 96.

Warriors -11.5 vs. Kings/Over 210:
The over/under might be the weaker play here, because who knows what the Kings will bring to the table.  We’ve burned betting against the Warriors on these big spreads, all season, but not anymore.  Golden State just hammers teams this year, especially at home.  Demarcus Cousins needs alot more help than he’s getting to change that.  Warriors win, running away, and we’ll take this game to slide over in the process.  Golden State 121 – Kings 91.

NCAAB 12/22

Kansas @ Temple Over 135:

Tough game to call on the road, but there’s a couple reasons to like the over.  First of all, Kansas has Cliff Alexander and Perry Ellis, Temple doesn’t.  The Owls have had an average of 80 ppg hung on them, by teams of Kansas’ talent level (Villanova & Duke).  Temple is back to full force, now that transfers Jesse Morgan and Will Cummings are on the floor.  The Owls hung 82 points on a soft, Delaware squad, last outing.  Temple makes games physical and fast, which will either be great, or be terrible, their won’t be an in between.  We think it’s a positive.  We expect the Owls to hit some 3’s at home, and we also expect both teams to be in the bonus early.  This game should be 38 – 33 at half and coast to an easy over.  Kansas 76 – Temple 69.

Oakland +9.5 @ Clemson:

This game wreaks with value.  Oakland averages close to 77 points per game, whereas Clemson is putting up a measly 66 ppg’s.  Road games are never a lock for teams of this caliber, but considering Oakland hung within 11 against Iowa State, and lost by 4, in a hostile Pitt environment, there’s value in them Golden Grizzlies.  Remember this, Clemson not only struggles to put the ball in the hoop (they do play decent defense), but they’ve lost to Gardner Webb, Winthrop, and Rutgers this year!  Oakland has a chance to steal this one, either way, 9.5 is just too many.  Oakland 65 – Clemson 60.

Notre Dame -18.5 vs. Northern Illinois:

Huge spread, always scary right?  Wrong!  Tons of value in this game.  NIU is averages close to 18 turnovers per game, on the season!  The Huskies shoot a whopping 35% in first halves this season.  Notre Dame is one of the most proficient three point shooting teams in the country.  The Irish have scored over 80 points in 9 of their 11 wins (over 90 in 5 of those contests).  Notre Dame also has 3 players that have made 15 or more 3’s on the season.  There’s too many layups, and too many 3’s in this contest, for a team like NIU that gives away so many possessions.  Irish win 88 – 61.

Uconn – 7 vs. Columbia:Don’t be fooled by past performance, this is the perfect time to jump back on the Husky bandwagon.  Uconn has the experience of playing hard fought games with Texas, West Virginia, and now Kentucky.  These Huskies’ early struggles will help them in their late season push.  We’ve got the more athletic team, at home, with an All-American caliber point guard, as well as a giant rim protector.  Columbia has played everyone close, including Kentucky, but they’re playing Uconn at the wrong time.  There’s no chance in hell Columbia catches Uconn off guard, after that close game with Kentucky, and Uconn’s bad loss to Yale.  Uconn wins this one with ease, 67 – 44.

Long Beach State +10/Over 135.5:

The Beach have two of the best guards in the country in Tyler Lamb and Mike Caffey.  St. John’s has the better defense, but they’ve got more than enough athleticism to match.  This will be a hard fought, grind it out game.  The stats and the style of play say take the under, but we’re rocking the over here.  Guard play pushes guard play and the Red Storm find a way to pull out a battle 71 – 66.

Teaser: Colorado -3.5/Oregon -2.5:

UC Santa Barbara has looked stellar, playing almost everyone in the country close this season.  They’ve also blown some 14 – 15 point losses, on the road.  Going up to Oregon is one of the toughest tasks in basketball.  The Ducks have an elite guard in Joseph Young, and an up & coming star in Dillon Brooks.  There’s too much firepower at home for UCSB.

Depaul just went out to Corvallis and got bashed by 40.  Now granted, they’ll be a much more efficient squad at home, than they are on the road.  This won’t be an easy one, but Depaul plays no defense.  If you’ve seen Colorado, at all this year, you know they defend for 94 feet, and they have fantastic length.  Aski Booker will be the difference for the Buffs.  Oregon 71 – UCSB 64; Colorado 72 – Depaul 64.

Providence vs. Miami Over 131:

You have to love these holiday hoops tournament games!  Playing in the primetime lights of Brooklyn, we’re talking zero letdown here.  Both teams will be amped to prove something.  Miami, coming off a 30 point drubbing to EASTERN KENTUCKY, will show up like never before.  Always expect a bounce back, after a terrible performance like that.  Providence has historically played well in their Big East matchups in the Big Apple.  We can’t see why the Friars won’t bring it here.  It’s really hard to tell who will win this one, we favor Providence, but love the over.  Remember, both teams average 70 points a contest, and shoot close to 46% from the floor.  Translation:  Points on the Board.  Providence 79 – Miami 76.

Cal +10 vs. Wisconsin:
This is by no means the lock of the night.  If you underestimate Wisconsin, you are insane.  The Badgers truly are a National Championship Contender.  Wisconsin is 9 deep with guys that defend and score the rock.  This pick scares us a bit, but the Badgers haven’t been out of their state for a road game yet!  Traveling out to California is a trek, there will be jet lag, Cal has shown they can play anyone close, and there’s no doubt Cal will be amp’d up for this one.  Golden Bears don’t win, but we think they can hang around, Wiscy 74 – Bears 65 on a backdoor cover 3.

Syracuse vs. Colgate Under 125:

The scary part of this is if Syracuse actually shows up, they could push this thing over easily, because of the blowout that could ensue.  The thing of this is Colgate already struggles to score. They average around 63 points a night.  They haven’t played a defense as long and athletic as Syracuse all season.  They’re not getting any high % looks against that zone, at the Carrier Dome.  We’re banking on Syracuse showing up sluggish, after a debilitating meltdown against a Villanova team they had beat.  As long as Syracuse doesn’t drop 80 we should be okay.  Final score Syracuse 72 – Colgate 50.

 

NCAAF 12/22

Memphis -1.5 vs. BYU:

Too much offense on the Memphis side and this is their Super Bowl.  This is a Memphis team that almost got, a full strength, UCLA squad.  BYU is down a couple quarterbacks.  Can’t see the Cougars overcoming that.  Memphis wins a shootout 37 – 34.

NFL 12/21

Vikings +7.5 @ Miami:

Traveling to Miami is never an easy place to play.  That being said, there’s value in the Vikings this week and we’ll tell you why.  One Miami is beat up after two bad losses to Baltimore and New England.  Two, the Vikings are showing grit in their defensive effort the past few weeks.  This young Vikings team is proving they can stop the pass and the run.  Over their past three games, the Vikes are giving up about 16 points, per game.  Minnesota has a chance to pull off the upset.  We think they lose a really close one, 24 – 21 Fish.

Teaser of the Day: Green Bay -5/Detroit -1.5:

The Bucs have some signs of life on offense, but their issue all season has been turnovers.  Tampa Bay has no consistency on defense, either.  Green Bay needs this one way more than Tampa.  We can’t see Green Bay not showing up with urgency.  Tease this down and it should be a lock.  Eddie Lacey will run rampant on the Bucs defense.

Jimmy Clausen at Quarterback, a team that doesn’t use Matt Forte enough, and a defense that may be one of the worst in NFL history.  There’s absolutely no reason on earth to bet on Marc Trestman’s Bears.  Oh yeah, and Detroit brings one of the best defenses in the league to the table.  Lions big, 24 – 7.

Detroit -8.5 vs. Chicago:

See above.

Teaser 2 of the Day: Pats -3.5/Colts & Cowboys Over 48

The Jets can stop the run, but they’re horrible against the pass.  This means a huge day for Rob Gronkowski.  Michael Vick, or Geno Smith, it doesn’t matter, they’re both turnover prone.  The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New England is fantastic in November and December, historically.  Enough said, Pats 41 – Jets 10.

The Colts and Cowboys offer two of the best offenses in the league.  Dallas’ defense is solid against the run, which the Colts could care less because they can’t run.  We can’t see a game where Andrew Luck doesn’t have at least 3 TD throws.  Dallas can establish their run and pass, even with DeMarco Murray hurt, against a bad Colts defense.  This is a fantastic teaser.  Final score Dallas 34 – Colts 31.

Colts @ Cowboys Over 55:

See above.

Pittsburgh -2.5 vs. Kansas City/Under 48:

Kansas City has one of the better run defenses in the league, but don’t expect the Steelers to abandon the run.  Pittsburgh’s finally getting healthy defensively, so they should be able to key in on Jamaal Charles.  Home Field advantage and the better passing game is the difference in this one.  KC has no playmakers on the edge, whereas the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton.  Pittsburgh 24 – 17.

Baltimore vs. Houston Under 42:

There’s so many questions on the offensive side of this one that it makes the spread scary.  The over under is absolutely fantastic then and we’ll tell you why.  First of all, Houston’s defense is clicking on all cylinders.  Baltimore will not have the ability to run against J.J. Watt’s front 7.  Joe Flacco will take a good half to get in a groove with Watt batting down his passes, as well.  On the other side, Baltimore’s defense will key in on a solid run game.  There’s no way Houston can put pressure on 3rd string QB Tom Savage to carry the load yet.  Ground and pound will be important, with two solid defenses leading the way.  We think Baltimore could cover, but play it safe and play the under.  Final score 24 – 17 Ravens.

Oakland +7.5 vs. Buffalo:

Defense travels well and both teams have a defense.  Oakland will really struggle with that pass rush of Buffalo.  This is more of a hunch bet, because Buffalo will definitely show up in their playoff hunt run.  Cross country travel from Buffalo to Oakland will no doubt be an impact.  Buffalo is coming off their most emotional win of the season.  It’s an impossible spot not to have a bit of a letdown.  Buffalo wins, but Oakland covers.  Buffalo 27 – Oakland 24.

Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seattle:

Seattle might be the most dangerous team in the league right now.  Arizona’s down to their third string QB in Ryan Lindley, whom we can’t stand by the way.  That being said, the NFC West is a dogfight and Bruce Arians has had his club ready to play all season.  The Cardinals pass rush is fantastic, especially at home.  They haven’t overextended themselves, offensively, all season so why would they now?  The Cards create a couple turnovers and show why they have the best defense in football.  Seattle will have to struggle and steal this late, on a late 4th quarter, Marshawn Lynch TD.  Seahawks 21 – Cardinals 17.

Monday Night Teaser: Cincinnati +10.5/Over 40

Monday night in Cincinnati, this game will be electric.  Both teams have solid defenses and the Bengals will be ready to play.  A couple differences separate Denver.  One, whose going to cover a healthy Julius and Demaryius Thomas?  Secondly, Denver is number 2 in the league against the run.  In the Bengals’ past 4 wins Jeremy Hill has been a huge part of their success.  The run game will be minimized greatly against Denver.  Thirdly, the Bengals are 24th in the NFL against the rush.  That being said, over the last month, Cincinnati is Top 10 in the league against the run.  There’s a lot of stats that point to both sides.  That leads us to think this will be a very tight game.  There’s no chance on earth we’re taking Andy Dalton over Peyton Manning.  You can’t logically bet that, but we do like Cincy’s defense (especially at home) over Denver’s.  The safe play in this game is giving Cincy 10.5 points and bumping the over.  Peyton Manning always finds a way to get his points, and we just feel like Cincy will show up, knowing that a win clinches a playoff birth.  A very tough call in this game.  We actually think Cincy will find a way to win 24 – 21, BUT being that Andy Dalton’s on the field, play this the safe way and push the over +10.5 points for the home team.